Facebook 8 Period Moving Average

FB -- USA Stock  

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Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Facebook historic prices and determine the direction of Facebook future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Facebook historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Facebook systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Facebook fundamentals over time. Additionally see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Facebook to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Facebook is based on an artificially constructed time series of Facebook daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Facebook on the next trading day is expected to be 199.895

Facebook Prediction Pattern

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Facebook Forecasted Value

Market Value
196.75
December 12, 2019
195.92
Downside
199.90
Expected Value
203.87
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria106.013
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.4953
MADMean absolute deviation2.8884
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0152
SAESum of the absolute errors153.085
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Facebook 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

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