Facebook 4 Period Moving Average

FB -- USA Stock  

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Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Facebook historic prices and determine the direction of Facebook future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Facebook historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Facebook systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Facebook fundamentals over time. Additionally see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Facebook to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A four-period moving average forecast model for Facebook is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Facebook on the next trading day is expected to be 200.305

Facebook Prediction Pattern

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Facebook Forecasted Value

Market Value
196.75
December 12, 2019
196.33
Downside
200.31
Expected Value
204.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria113.0566
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.4885
MADMean absolute deviation2.6203
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0139
SAESum of the absolute errors149.3575
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Facebook. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Facebook and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Volatility Measures

Facebook Risk Indicators

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