Esquire Financial Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ESQ Stock | USD 45.01 0.41 0.92% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Esquire Financial Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 44.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.44. Esquire Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Esquire Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Esquire Financial Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Esquire Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Esquire Financial to cross-verify your projections. Esquire |
Most investors in Esquire Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Esquire Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Esquire Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Esquire Financial - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Esquire Financial prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Esquire Financial price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Esquire Financial. Esquire Financial Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Esquire Financial Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 44.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79, mean absolute percentage error of 1.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Esquire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Esquire Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Esquire Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Esquire Financial | Esquire Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Esquire Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Esquire Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Esquire Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.81 and 46.95, respectively. We have considered Esquire Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Esquire Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Esquire Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1823 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7871 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0162 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 46.4368 |
Predictive Modules for Esquire Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Esquire Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Esquire Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Esquire Financial
For every potential investor in Esquire, whether a beginner or expert, Esquire Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Esquire Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Esquire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Esquire Financial's price trends.View Esquire Financial Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Esquire Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Esquire Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Esquire Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Esquire Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Esquire Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Esquire Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Esquire Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Esquire Financial Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Esquire Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Esquire Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Esquire Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting esquire stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Variance | 4.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Esquire Financial
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Esquire Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Esquire Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Esquire Stock
| 0.62 | AX | Axos Financial Financial Report 25th of April 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Esquire Stock
| 0.6 | DB | Deutsche Bank AG Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.51 | TECTP | Tectonic Financial | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Esquire Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Esquire Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Esquire Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Esquire Financial Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Esquire Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Esquire Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Esquire Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Esquire Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Esquire Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Complementary Tools for Esquire Stock analysis
When running Esquire Financial's price analysis, check to measure Esquire Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Esquire Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Esquire Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Esquire Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Esquire Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Esquire Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Esquire Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Esquire Financial. If investors know Esquire will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Esquire Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Esquire Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Esquire that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Esquire Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Esquire Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Esquire Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Esquire Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Esquire Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Esquire Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Esquire Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.