DaVita HealthCare Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

DVA Stock  USD 136.85  1.60  1.18%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of DaVita HealthCare Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 136.14 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.80  and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.59. DaVita Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast DaVita HealthCare stock prices and determine the direction of DaVita HealthCare Partners's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of DaVita HealthCare's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DaVita HealthCare to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 DaVita Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast DaVita HealthCare's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in DaVita HealthCare's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for DaVita HealthCare stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current DaVita HealthCare's open interest, investors have to compare it to DaVita HealthCare's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of DaVita HealthCare is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in DaVita. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in DaVita HealthCare cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the DaVita HealthCare's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets DaVita HealthCare's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
DaVita HealthCare polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for DaVita HealthCare Partners as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

DaVita HealthCare Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of DaVita HealthCare Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 136.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80, mean absolute percentage error of 5.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.59.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DaVita Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DaVita HealthCare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

DaVita HealthCare Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest DaVita HealthCareDaVita HealthCare Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

DaVita HealthCare Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting DaVita HealthCare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DaVita HealthCare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 134.14 and 138.14, respectively. We have considered DaVita HealthCare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
136.85
134.14
Downside
136.14
Expected Value
138.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DaVita HealthCare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DaVita HealthCare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.6494
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.7998
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0153
SAESum of the absolute errors111.5882
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the DaVita HealthCare historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for DaVita HealthCare

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DaVita HealthCare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of DaVita HealthCare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
134.87136.85138.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
123.17152.46154.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
133.84135.62137.40
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as DaVita HealthCare. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against DaVita HealthCare's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, DaVita HealthCare's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in DaVita HealthCare.

Other Forecasting Options for DaVita HealthCare

For every potential investor in DaVita, whether a beginner or expert, DaVita HealthCare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DaVita Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DaVita. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DaVita HealthCare's price trends.

DaVita HealthCare Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DaVita HealthCare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DaVita HealthCare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DaVita HealthCare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

DaVita HealthCare Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of DaVita HealthCare's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of DaVita HealthCare's current price.

DaVita HealthCare Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DaVita HealthCare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DaVita HealthCare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DaVita HealthCare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DaVita HealthCare Partners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

DaVita HealthCare Risk Indicators

The analysis of DaVita HealthCare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DaVita HealthCare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting davita stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with DaVita HealthCare

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if DaVita HealthCare position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in DaVita HealthCare will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to DaVita HealthCare could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace DaVita HealthCare when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back DaVita HealthCare - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling DaVita HealthCare Partners to buy it.
The correlation of DaVita HealthCare is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as DaVita HealthCare moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if DaVita HealthCare moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for DaVita HealthCare can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether DaVita HealthCare offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of DaVita HealthCare's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Davita Healthcare Partners Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Davita Healthcare Partners Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DaVita HealthCare to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.

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When running DaVita HealthCare's price analysis, check to measure DaVita HealthCare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy DaVita HealthCare is operating at the current time. Most of DaVita HealthCare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of DaVita HealthCare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move DaVita HealthCare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of DaVita HealthCare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is DaVita HealthCare's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of DaVita HealthCare. If investors know DaVita will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about DaVita HealthCare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of DaVita HealthCare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of DaVita that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of DaVita HealthCare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is DaVita HealthCare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because DaVita HealthCare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect DaVita HealthCare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between DaVita HealthCare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if DaVita HealthCare is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, DaVita HealthCare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.