Digimarc Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

DMRC Stock  USD 27.18  0.16  0.59%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Digimarc on the next trading day is expected to be 29.53 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.03  and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.77. Digimarc Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Digimarc stock prices and determine the direction of Digimarc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Digimarc's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Digimarc's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Digimarc's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Digimarc fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Digimarc to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Digimarc Stock refer to our How to Trade Digimarc Stock guide.
  
At present, Digimarc's Asset Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. . As of March 29, 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to decline to about 11.3 M. The current year's Net Loss is expected to grow to about (51.1 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Digimarc Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Digimarc's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Digimarc's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Digimarc stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Digimarc's open interest, investors have to compare it to Digimarc's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Digimarc is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Digimarc. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Digimarc cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Digimarc's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Digimarc's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Digimarc is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Digimarc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Digimarc Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Digimarc on the next trading day is expected to be 29.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03, mean absolute percentage error of 1.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.77.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Digimarc Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Digimarc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Digimarc Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest DigimarcDigimarc Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Digimarc Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Digimarc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Digimarc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.69 and 33.36, respectively. We have considered Digimarc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.18
29.53
Expected Value
33.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Digimarc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Digimarc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.6017
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0285
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0294
SAESum of the absolute errors63.7662
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Digimarc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Digimarc. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Digimarc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Digimarc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Digimarc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
22.7126.5230.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.5627.3731.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
22.3730.9739.57
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
27.3030.0033.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Digimarc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Digimarc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Digimarc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Digimarc.

Other Forecasting Options for Digimarc

For every potential investor in Digimarc, whether a beginner or expert, Digimarc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Digimarc Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Digimarc. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Digimarc's price trends.

Digimarc Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Digimarc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Digimarc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Digimarc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Digimarc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Digimarc's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Digimarc's current price.

Digimarc Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Digimarc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Digimarc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Digimarc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Digimarc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Digimarc Risk Indicators

The analysis of Digimarc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Digimarc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting digimarc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Digimarc in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Digimarc's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Digimarc options trading.

Pair Trading with Digimarc

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Digimarc position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Digimarc will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Digimarc Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Digimarc could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Digimarc when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Digimarc - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Digimarc to buy it.
The correlation of Digimarc is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Digimarc moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Digimarc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Digimarc can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Digimarc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Digimarc's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Digimarc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Digimarc Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Digimarc to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Digimarc Stock refer to our How to Trade Digimarc Stock guide.
You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

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Is Digimarc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Digimarc. If investors know Digimarc will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Digimarc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(2.26)
Revenue Per Share
1.715
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.286
Return On Assets
(0.31)
Return On Equity
(0.58)
The market value of Digimarc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Digimarc that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Digimarc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Digimarc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Digimarc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Digimarc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Digimarc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Digimarc is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Digimarc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.