CVS Health Triple Exponential Smoothing

CVS -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: December 31, 2019  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast CVS Health historic prices and determine the direction of CVS Health Corporation future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of CVS Health historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of CVS Health Corporation systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of CVS Health fundamentals over time. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of CVS Health to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Triple exponential smoothing for CVS Health - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When CVS Health prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in CVS Health price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of CVS Health.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of CVS Health Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 73.449505

CVS Health Prediction Pattern

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CVS Health Forecasted Value

Market Value
73.59
December 14, 2019
73.45
Expected Value
77.43
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0865
MADMean absolute deviation0.7328
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0108
SAESum of the absolute errors43.2345
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past CVS Health observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older CVS Health Corporation observations.

Volatility Measures

CVS Health Risk Indicators

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