Campbell Soup Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CPB Stock  USD 44.07  0.70  1.61%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Campbell Soup on the next trading day is expected to be 44.27 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.54  and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.43. Campbell Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Campbell Soup stock prices and determine the direction of Campbell Soup's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Campbell Soup's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Campbell Soup's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Campbell Soup's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Campbell Soup fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Campbell Soup to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Campbell Stock refer to our How to Trade Campbell Stock guide.
  
At present, Campbell Soup's Payables Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 1.24, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 4.31. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 320.4 M, whereas Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is forecasted to decline to about 797.8 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Campbell Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Campbell Soup's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Campbell Soup's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Campbell Soup stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Campbell Soup's open interest, investors have to compare it to Campbell Soup's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Campbell Soup is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Campbell. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Campbell Soup cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Campbell Soup's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Campbell Soup's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Campbell Soup - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Campbell Soup prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Campbell Soup price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Campbell Soup.

Campbell Soup Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Campbell Soup on the next trading day is expected to be 44.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.43.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Campbell Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Campbell Soup's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Campbell Soup Stock Forecast Pattern

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Campbell Soup Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Campbell Soup's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Campbell Soup's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.91 and 45.63, respectively. We have considered Campbell Soup's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
44.07
44.27
Expected Value
45.63
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Campbell Soup stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Campbell Soup stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0866
MADMean absolute deviation0.5405
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0125
SAESum of the absolute errors32.4314
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Campbell Soup observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Campbell Soup observations.

Predictive Modules for Campbell Soup

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Campbell Soup. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Campbell Soup's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
42.6944.0445.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
39.7841.1348.48
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
42.9443.6044.26
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
40.7844.8149.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Campbell Soup. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Campbell Soup's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Campbell Soup's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Campbell Soup.

Other Forecasting Options for Campbell Soup

For every potential investor in Campbell, whether a beginner or expert, Campbell Soup's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Campbell Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Campbell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Campbell Soup's price trends.

Campbell Soup Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Campbell Soup stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Campbell Soup could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Campbell Soup by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Campbell Soup Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Campbell Soup's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Campbell Soup's current price.

Campbell Soup Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Campbell Soup stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Campbell Soup shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Campbell Soup stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Campbell Soup entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Campbell Soup Risk Indicators

The analysis of Campbell Soup's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Campbell Soup's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting campbell stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Campbell Soup Investors Sentiment

The influence of Campbell Soup's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Campbell. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Campbell Soup's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Campbell. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Campbell can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Campbell Soup. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Campbell Soup's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Campbell Soup's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Campbell Soup's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Campbell Soup.

Campbell Soup Implied Volatility

    
  36.96  
Campbell Soup's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Campbell Soup stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Campbell Soup's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Campbell Soup stock will not fluctuate a lot when Campbell Soup's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Campbell Soup in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Campbell Soup's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Campbell Soup options trading.

Pair Trading with Campbell Soup

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Campbell Soup position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Campbell Soup will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Campbell Stock

  0.63BOF BranchOut Food CommonPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Campbell Soup could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Campbell Soup when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Campbell Soup - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Campbell Soup to buy it.
The correlation of Campbell Soup is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Campbell Soup moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Campbell Soup moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Campbell Soup can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Campbell Soup offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Campbell Soup's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Campbell Soup Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Campbell Soup Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Campbell Soup to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Campbell Stock refer to our How to Trade Campbell Stock guide.
You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.

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When running Campbell Soup's price analysis, check to measure Campbell Soup's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Campbell Soup is operating at the current time. Most of Campbell Soup's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Campbell Soup's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Campbell Soup's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Campbell Soup to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Campbell Soup's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Campbell Soup. If investors know Campbell will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Campbell Soup listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.12)
Dividend Share
1.48
Earnings Share
2.55
Revenue Per Share
31.059
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
The market value of Campbell Soup is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Campbell that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Campbell Soup's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Campbell Soup's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Campbell Soup's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Campbell Soup's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Campbell Soup's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Campbell Soup is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Campbell Soup's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.