Coastal Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CCB Stock  USD 38.87  0.41  1.07%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Coastal Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 39.14 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.67  and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.91. Coastal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Coastal Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Coastal Financial Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Coastal Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Coastal Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Coastal Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Coastal Financial fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Coastal Financial to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current year's Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 12.38. The current year's Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 14.07. The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 49.1 M, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is forecasted to decline to about 11.5 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Coastal Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Coastal Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Coastal Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Coastal Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Coastal Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Coastal Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Coastal Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Coastal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Coastal Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Coastal Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Coastal Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Coastal Financial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Coastal Financial Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Coastal Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Coastal Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 39.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.91.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Coastal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Coastal Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Coastal Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Coastal FinancialCoastal Financial Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Coastal Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Coastal Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Coastal Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.20 and 41.08, respectively. We have considered Coastal Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
38.87
39.14
Expected Value
41.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Coastal Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Coastal Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7969
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6707
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.017
SAESum of the absolute errors40.9132
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Coastal Financial Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Coastal Financial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Coastal Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Coastal Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Coastal Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
37.2039.1541.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
34.9848.8550.80
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
53.0158.2564.66
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.700.760.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Coastal Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Coastal Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Coastal Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Coastal Financial Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Coastal Financial

For every potential investor in Coastal, whether a beginner or expert, Coastal Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Coastal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Coastal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Coastal Financial's price trends.

Coastal Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Coastal Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Coastal Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Coastal Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Coastal Financial Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Coastal Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Coastal Financial's current price.

Coastal Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Coastal Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Coastal Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Coastal Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Coastal Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Coastal Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Coastal Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Coastal Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting coastal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Coastal Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Coastal Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Coastal Financial options trading.

Pair Trading with Coastal Financial

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Coastal Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Coastal Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Coastal Stock

  0.96MBCN Middlefield Banc Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.82MBWM Mercantile Bank Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Coastal Stock

  0.86NU Nu Holdings Sell-off TrendPairCorr
  0.84KB KB Financial Group Financial Report 20th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.83RF-PB Regions FinancialPairCorr
  0.83WF Woori Financial Group Financial Report 21st of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.78RF-PC Regions FinancialPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Coastal Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Coastal Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Coastal Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Coastal Financial Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Coastal Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Coastal Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Coastal Financial Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Coastal Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Coastal Financial Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Coastal Financial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Coastal Financial Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Coastal Financial Corp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Coastal Financial to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Coastal Financial Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Coastal Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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When running Coastal Financial's price analysis, check to measure Coastal Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Coastal Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Coastal Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Coastal Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Coastal Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Coastal Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Coastal Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Coastal Financial. If investors know Coastal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Coastal Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.32)
Earnings Share
3.27
Revenue Per Share
19.749
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.015
Return On Assets
0.0129
The market value of Coastal Financial Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Coastal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Coastal Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Coastal Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Coastal Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Coastal Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Coastal Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Coastal Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Coastal Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.