Bridgewater Bancshares Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

BWB Stock  USD 11.48  0.19  1.68%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bridgewater Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 11.50 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.21  and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.35. Bridgewater Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bridgewater Bancshares stock prices and determine the direction of Bridgewater Bancshares's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bridgewater Bancshares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Bridgewater Bancshares' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bridgewater Bancshares' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bridgewater Bancshares fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bridgewater Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Bridgewater Stock refer to our How to Trade Bridgewater Stock guide.
  
As of March 28, 2024, Inventory Turnover is expected to decline to -0.0067. In addition to that, Payables Turnover is expected to decline to -0.14. As of March 28, 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to decline to about 23.4 M. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to decline to about 30.3 M.
Most investors in Bridgewater Bancshares cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bridgewater Bancshares' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bridgewater Bancshares' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Bridgewater Bancshares works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Bridgewater Bancshares Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bridgewater Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 11.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.35.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bridgewater Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bridgewater Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bridgewater Bancshares Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bridgewater BancsharesBridgewater Bancshares Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Bridgewater Bancshares Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bridgewater Bancshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bridgewater Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.46 and 13.53, respectively. We have considered Bridgewater Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.48
11.50
Expected Value
13.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bridgewater Bancshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bridgewater Bancshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0297
MADMean absolute deviation0.2058
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0169
SAESum of the absolute errors12.3504
When Bridgewater Bancshares prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Bridgewater Bancshares trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Bridgewater Bancshares observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Bridgewater Bancshares

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bridgewater Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bridgewater Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.4311.4613.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.1612.1914.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.2011.3711.53
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.0613.2514.71
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bridgewater Bancshares. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bridgewater Bancshares' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bridgewater Bancshares' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bridgewater Bancshares.

Other Forecasting Options for Bridgewater Bancshares

For every potential investor in Bridgewater, whether a beginner or expert, Bridgewater Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bridgewater Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bridgewater. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bridgewater Bancshares' price trends.

Bridgewater Bancshares Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bridgewater Bancshares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bridgewater Bancshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bridgewater Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bridgewater Bancshares Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bridgewater Bancshares' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bridgewater Bancshares' current price.

Bridgewater Bancshares Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bridgewater Bancshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bridgewater Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bridgewater Bancshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bridgewater Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bridgewater Bancshares Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bridgewater Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bridgewater Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bridgewater stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bridgewater Bancshares in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Bridgewater Bancshares' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Bridgewater Bancshares options trading.

Pair Trading with Bridgewater Bancshares

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bridgewater Bancshares position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bridgewater Bancshares will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Bridgewater Stock

  0.66MBCN Middlefield Banc Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.73MBWM Mercantile Bank Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Bridgewater Stock

  0.79KB KB Financial Group Financial Report 20th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.79WF Woori Financial Group Financial Report 21st of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.74NU Nu Holdings Financial Report 20th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.71MFBP MF BancorpPairCorr
  0.62TECTP Tectonic FinancialPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bridgewater Bancshares could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bridgewater Bancshares when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bridgewater Bancshares - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bridgewater Bancshares to buy it.
The correlation of Bridgewater Bancshares is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bridgewater Bancshares moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bridgewater Bancshares moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bridgewater Bancshares can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Bridgewater Bancshares offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Bridgewater Bancshares' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Bridgewater Bancshares Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Bridgewater Bancshares Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bridgewater Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Bridgewater Stock refer to our How to Trade Bridgewater Stock guide.
You can also try the AI Investment Finder module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.

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Is Bridgewater Bancshares' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bridgewater Bancshares. If investors know Bridgewater will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bridgewater Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.37)
Earnings Share
1.27
Revenue Per Share
4.015
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.17)
Return On Assets
0.0089
The market value of Bridgewater Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bridgewater that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bridgewater Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bridgewater Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bridgewater Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bridgewater Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bridgewater Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bridgewater Bancshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bridgewater Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.