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Babcock Wilcox Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

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BW -- USA Stock  

USD 4.57  0.03  0.66%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Babcock Wilcox historic stock prices and determine the direction of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Babcock Wilcox historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Babcock Wilcox fundamentals over time. Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Babcock Wilcox to cross-verify your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for Babcock Wilcox is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I on the next trading day is expected to be 4.961216

Babcock Wilcox Stock Forecast Pattern

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Babcock Wilcox Forecasted Value

Market Value
4.57
February 19, 2020
0.0457
Downside
4.96
Expected Value
15.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria114.7429
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1518
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.037
SAESum of the absolute errors9.2585
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Babcock Wilcox Enterprises I. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

Babcock Wilcox Risk Indicators