Bank of America Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

BAC Stock  USD 37.92  0.11  0.29%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank Of America on the next trading day is expected to be 37.92 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.34  and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.48. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bank of America stock prices and determine the direction of Bank Of America's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bank of America's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Bank of America's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bank of America's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bank of America fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank of America to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Bank Stock refer to our How to Trade Bank Stock guide.
  
The current year's Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.05, whereas Inventory Turnover is projected to grow to (0.06). . The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 31.4 B, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is forecasted to decline to about 6.7 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-05 Bank Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bank of America's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Bank of America's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Bank of America stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bank of America's open interest, investors have to compare it to Bank of America's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bank of America is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bank. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Bank of America cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bank of America's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bank of America's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Bank of America simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Bank Of America are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Bank Of America prices get older.

Bank of America Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank Of America on the next trading day is expected to be 37.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank of America's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bank of America Stock Forecast Pattern

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Bank of America Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bank of America's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank of America's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.66 and 39.18, respectively. We have considered Bank of America's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
37.92
37.92
Expected Value
39.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank of America stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank of America stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.4244
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0698
MADMean absolute deviation0.3357
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0098
SAESum of the absolute errors20.48
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Bank Of America forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Bank of America observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Bank of America

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Of America. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bank of America's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
36.8638.1139.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
32.9734.2241.71
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
33.4535.8238.18
Details
24 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
29.1832.0735.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bank of America. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bank of America's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bank of America's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bank Of America.

Other Forecasting Options for Bank of America

For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank of America's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank of America's price trends.

Bank of America Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank of America stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank of America could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank of America by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bank Of America Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank of America's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank of America's current price.

Bank of America Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank of America stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank of America shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank of America stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank Of America entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bank of America Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank of America's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank of America's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Bank of America

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bank of America position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bank of America will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Bank Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bank of America could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bank of America when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bank of America - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bank Of America to buy it.
The correlation of Bank of America is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bank of America moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bank Of America moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bank of America can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Bank Of America offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Bank of America's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Bank Of America Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Bank Of America Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank of America to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Bank Stock refer to our How to Trade Bank Stock guide.
Note that the Bank Of America information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Bank of America's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

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When running Bank of America's price analysis, check to measure Bank of America's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bank of America is operating at the current time. Most of Bank of America's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bank of America's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bank of America's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bank of America to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Bank of America's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bank of America. If investors know Bank will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bank of America listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.61)
Dividend Share
0.92
Earnings Share
3.08
Revenue Per Share
11.731
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.11)
The market value of Bank Of America is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bank that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bank of America's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bank of America's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bank of America's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bank of America's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bank of America's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bank of America is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bank of America's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.