Axos Financial Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

AX Stock  USD 54.04  0.67  1.26%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Axos Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 53.51 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.09  and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.72. Axos Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Axos Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Axos Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Axos Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Axos Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Axos Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Axos Financial fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axos Financial to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Axos Stock please use our How to Invest in Axos Financial guide.
  
Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop to 8.32 in 2024. Receivables Turnover is likely to drop to 2.03 in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 370.9 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 49.7 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Axos Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Axos Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Axos Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Axos Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Axos Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Axos Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Axos Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Axos. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Axos Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Axos Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Axos Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Axos Financial polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Axos Financial as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Axos Financial Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Axos Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 53.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.09, mean absolute percentage error of 1.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Axos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Axos Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Axos Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Axos FinancialAxos Financial Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Axos Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Axos Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Axos Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.52 and 55.50, respectively. We have considered Axos Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
54.04
53.51
Expected Value
55.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Axos Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Axos Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.7602
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0939
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0208
SAESum of the absolute errors66.7249
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Axos Financial historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Axos Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Axos Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Axos Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
51.3653.3655.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
51.3653.3555.36
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
51.4052.5753.73
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
48.6953.5059.39
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Axos Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Axos Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Axos Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Axos Financial.

Other Forecasting Options for Axos Financial

For every potential investor in Axos, whether a beginner or expert, Axos Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Axos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Axos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Axos Financial's price trends.

Axos Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Axos Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Axos Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Axos Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Axos Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Axos Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Axos Financial's current price.

Axos Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Axos Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Axos Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Axos Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Axos Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Axos Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Axos Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Axos Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting axos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Axos Financial

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Axos Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Axos Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Axos Stock

  0.73MBCN Middlefield Banc Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.86MBWM Mercantile Bank Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Axos Stock

  0.64MFBP MF BancorpPairCorr
  0.61KB KB Financial Group Financial Report 20th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.61NU Nu Holdings Sell-off TrendPairCorr
  0.59WF Woori Financial Group Financial Report 21st of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.48RF-PB Regions FinancialPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Axos Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Axos Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Axos Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Axos Financial to buy it.
The correlation of Axos Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Axos Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Axos Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Axos Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Axos Financial offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Axos Financial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Axos Financial Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Axos Financial Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axos Financial to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Axos Stock please use our How to Invest in Axos Financial guide.
You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for Axos Stock analysis

When running Axos Financial's price analysis, check to measure Axos Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Axos Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Axos Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Axos Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Axos Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Axos Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
AI Portfolio Architect
Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Companies Directory
Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals
Is Axos Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Axos Financial. If investors know Axos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Axos Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.941
Earnings Share
6.74
Revenue Per Share
15.998
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.096
Return On Assets
0.0199
The market value of Axos Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Axos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Axos Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Axos Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Axos Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Axos Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Axos Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Axos Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Axos Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.