Arwana Citramulia Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

ARNA Stock  IDR 700.00  5.00  0.71%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Arwana Citramulia Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 727.16 with a mean absolute deviation of  14.65  and the sum of the absolute errors of 893.86. Arwana Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Arwana Citramulia stock prices and determine the direction of Arwana Citramulia Tbk's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Arwana Citramulia's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arwana Citramulia to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Arwana Citramulia cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Arwana Citramulia's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Arwana Citramulia's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Arwana Citramulia polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Arwana Citramulia Tbk as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Arwana Citramulia Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Arwana Citramulia Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 727.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.65, mean absolute percentage error of 296.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 893.86.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arwana Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arwana Citramulia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Arwana Citramulia Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Arwana CitramuliaArwana Citramulia Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Arwana Citramulia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Arwana Citramulia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arwana Citramulia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 725.81 and 728.50, respectively. We have considered Arwana Citramulia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
700.00
725.81
Downside
727.16
Expected Value
728.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arwana Citramulia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arwana Citramulia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.8038
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation14.6535
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0211
SAESum of the absolute errors893.8629
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Arwana Citramulia historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Arwana Citramulia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arwana Citramulia Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arwana Citramulia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.001.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.001.34
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
696.95701.67706.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Arwana Citramulia. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Arwana Citramulia's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Arwana Citramulia's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Arwana Citramulia Tbk.

Other Forecasting Options for Arwana Citramulia

For every potential investor in Arwana, whether a beginner or expert, Arwana Citramulia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arwana Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arwana. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arwana Citramulia's price trends.

Arwana Citramulia Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arwana Citramulia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arwana Citramulia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arwana Citramulia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Arwana Citramulia Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arwana Citramulia's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arwana Citramulia's current price.

Arwana Citramulia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arwana Citramulia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arwana Citramulia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arwana Citramulia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arwana Citramulia Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Arwana Citramulia Risk Indicators

The analysis of Arwana Citramulia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arwana Citramulia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arwana stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Arwana Citramulia in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Arwana Citramulia's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Arwana Citramulia options trading.

Pair Trading with Arwana Citramulia

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arwana Citramulia position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arwana Citramulia will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Arwana Stock

  0.62ITMA Sumber Energi AndalanPairCorr

Moving against Arwana Stock

  0.52BIPI Benakat Petroleum EnergyPairCorr
  0.42TPIA Chandra Asri Petroch Earnings Call This WeekPairCorr
  0.41TAMU PT Pelayaran TamarinPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Arwana Citramulia could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Arwana Citramulia when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Arwana Citramulia - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Arwana Citramulia Tbk to buy it.
The correlation of Arwana Citramulia is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Arwana Citramulia moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Arwana Citramulia Tbk moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arwana Citramulia can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arwana Citramulia to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

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When running Arwana Citramulia's price analysis, check to measure Arwana Citramulia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arwana Citramulia is operating at the current time. Most of Arwana Citramulia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arwana Citramulia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arwana Citramulia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arwana Citramulia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Arwana Citramulia's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arwana Citramulia is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arwana Citramulia's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.