Advanced Micro Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AMD Stock  USD 180.46  0.87  0.48%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 161.44 with a mean absolute deviation of  6.42  and the sum of the absolute errors of 391.62. Advanced Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Advanced Micro stock prices and determine the direction of Advanced Micro Devices's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Advanced Micro's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Advanced Micro's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Advanced Micro's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Advanced Micro fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro to cross-verify your projections.
  
At present, Advanced Micro's Payables Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 11.30, whereas Asset Turnover is forecasted to decline to 0.30. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 1.7 B. The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 1.6 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Advanced Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Advanced Micro's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Advanced Micro's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Advanced Micro stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Advanced Micro's open interest, investors have to compare it to Advanced Micro's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Advanced Micro is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Advanced. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Advanced Micro cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Advanced Micro's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Advanced Micro's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Advanced Micro is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Advanced Micro Devices value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Advanced Micro Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 161.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.42, mean absolute percentage error of 63.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 391.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advanced Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advanced Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Advanced Micro Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Advanced MicroAdvanced Micro Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Advanced Micro Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Advanced Micro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Advanced Micro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 158.06 and 164.82, respectively. We have considered Advanced Micro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
180.46
158.06
Downside
161.44
Expected Value
164.82
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advanced Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advanced Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.264
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.42
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0363
SAESum of the absolute errors391.6175
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Advanced Micro Devices. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Advanced Micro. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Advanced Micro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advanced Micro Devices. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advanced Micro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
175.34178.72182.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
149.30152.68197.55
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
177.29178.70180.10
Details
47 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
117.49129.11143.31
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Advanced Micro. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Advanced Micro's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Advanced Micro's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Advanced Micro Devices.

Other Forecasting Options for Advanced Micro

For every potential investor in Advanced, whether a beginner or expert, Advanced Micro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Advanced Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Advanced. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Advanced Micro's price trends.

Advanced Micro Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Advanced Micro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Advanced Micro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advanced Micro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Advanced Micro Devices Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Advanced Micro's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Advanced Micro's current price.

Advanced Micro Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Advanced Micro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Advanced Micro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Advanced Micro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Advanced Micro Devices entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Advanced Micro Risk Indicators

The analysis of Advanced Micro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Advanced Micro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting advanced stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Advanced Micro

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Advanced Micro position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Advanced Micro will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Advanced Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Advanced Micro could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Advanced Micro when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Advanced Micro - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Advanced Micro Devices to buy it.
The correlation of Advanced Micro is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Advanced Micro moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Advanced Micro Devices moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Advanced Micro can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Advanced Micro Devices is a strong investment it is important to analyze Advanced Micro's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Advanced Micro's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Advanced Stock, refer to the following important reports:

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When running Advanced Micro's price analysis, check to measure Advanced Micro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advanced Micro is operating at the current time. Most of Advanced Micro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advanced Micro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advanced Micro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advanced Micro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Advanced Micro's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advanced Micro. If investors know Advanced will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advanced Micro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
48.693
Earnings Share
0.53
Revenue Per Share
14.052
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.102
Return On Assets
0.0037
The market value of Advanced Micro Devices is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advanced that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advanced Micro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advanced Micro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advanced Micro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advanced Micro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Advanced Micro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Advanced Micro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advanced Micro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.