Allot Communications Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| ALLT Stock | ILS 780.10 1.10 0.14% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Allot Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 782.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,124. Allot Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Allot Communications stock prices and determine the direction of Allot Communications's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Allot Communications' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allot Communications to cross-verify your projections. Allot |
Most investors in Allot Communications cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Allot Communications' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Allot Communications' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Allot Communications polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Allot Communications as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Allot Communications Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Allot Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 782.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.42, mean absolute percentage error of 590.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,124.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allot Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allot Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Allot Communications Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Allot Communications | Allot Communications Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Allot Communications Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Allot Communications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allot Communications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 779.41 and 785.94, respectively. We have considered Allot Communications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allot Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allot Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.4914 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 18.4245 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.026 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1123.8973 |
Predictive Modules for Allot Communications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allot Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allot Communications' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Allot Communications
For every potential investor in Allot, whether a beginner or expert, Allot Communications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allot Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allot. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allot Communications' price trends.Allot Communications Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allot Communications stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allot Communications could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allot Communications by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Allot Communications Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allot Communications' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allot Communications' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Allot Communications Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allot Communications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allot Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allot Communications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allot Communications entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Allot Communications Risk Indicators
The analysis of Allot Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allot Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allot stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.61 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.31 | |||
| Variance | 10.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.67 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.96) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Allot Communications in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Allot Communications' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Allot Communications options trading.
Pair Trading with Allot Communications
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Allot Communications position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Allot Communications will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Allot Stock
| 0.84 | RPAC | Rapac Communication | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | PWFL | PowerFleet | PairCorr |
Moving against Allot Stock
| 0.68 | BYSD | Bayside Land | PairCorr |
| 0.58 | GILT | Gilat Satellite Networks | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Allot Communications could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Allot Communications when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Allot Communications - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Allot Communications to buy it.
The correlation of Allot Communications is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Allot Communications moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Allot Communications moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Allot Communications can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allot Communications to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Allot Stock refer to our How to Trade Allot Stock guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for Allot Stock analysis
When running Allot Communications' price analysis, check to measure Allot Communications' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allot Communications is operating at the current time. Most of Allot Communications' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allot Communications' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allot Communications' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allot Communications to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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