Arthur J Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AJG Stock  USD 250.04  2.25  0.91%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arthur J Gallagher on the next trading day is expected to be 243.12 with a mean absolute deviation of  2.09  and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.28. Arthur Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Arthur J stock prices and determine the direction of Arthur J Gallagher's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Arthur J's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Arthur J's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Arthur J's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Arthur J fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arthur J to cross-verify your projections.
  
The Arthur J's current Fixed Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 17.41, while Inventory Turnover is projected to decrease to 0.20. . The Arthur J's current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 1.3 B, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is projected to decrease to roughly 119.5 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Arthur Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Arthur J's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Arthur J's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Arthur J stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Arthur J's open interest, investors have to compare it to Arthur J's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Arthur J is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Arthur. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Arthur J cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Arthur J's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Arthur J's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Arthur J is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Arthur J Gallagher value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Arthur J Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arthur J Gallagher on the next trading day is expected to be 243.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.09, mean absolute percentage error of 6.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.28.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arthur Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arthur J's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Arthur J Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Arthur JArthur J Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Arthur J Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Arthur J's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arthur J's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 242.22 and 244.02, respectively. We have considered Arthur J's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
250.04
242.22
Downside
243.12
Expected Value
244.02
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arthur J stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arthur J stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.9914
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.0866
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0087
SAESum of the absolute errors127.2845
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Arthur J Gallagher. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Arthur J. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Arthur J

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arthur J Gallagher. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arthur J's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
248.74249.64250.54
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
224.17225.07274.34
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
245.22247.81250.40
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
225.80248.13275.42
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Arthur J. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Arthur J's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Arthur J's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Arthur J Gallagher.

Other Forecasting Options for Arthur J

For every potential investor in Arthur, whether a beginner or expert, Arthur J's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arthur Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arthur. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arthur J's price trends.

Arthur J Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arthur J stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arthur J could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arthur J by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Arthur J Gallagher Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arthur J's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arthur J's current price.

Arthur J Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arthur J stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arthur J shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arthur J stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arthur J Gallagher entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Arthur J Risk Indicators

The analysis of Arthur J's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arthur J's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arthur stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Arthur J

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arthur J position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arthur J will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Arthur Stock

  0.88ERIE Erie Indemnity Financial Report 25th of April 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Arthur Stock

  0.84FANH Fanhua IncPairCorr
  0.82MBCN Middlefield Banc Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.8EHTH EHealth Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.74DHIL Diamond Hill InvestmentPairCorr
  0.73RELI Reliance Global GroupPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Arthur J could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Arthur J when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Arthur J - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Arthur J Gallagher to buy it.
The correlation of Arthur J is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Arthur J moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Arthur J Gallagher moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arthur J can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Arthur J Gallagher is a strong investment it is important to analyze Arthur J's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Arthur J's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Arthur Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arthur J to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

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When running Arthur J's price analysis, check to measure Arthur J's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arthur J is operating at the current time. Most of Arthur J's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arthur J's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arthur J's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arthur J to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arthur J's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arthur J. If investors know Arthur will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arthur J listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.076
Dividend Share
2.2
Earnings Share
4.43
Revenue Per Share
44.482
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.18
The market value of Arthur J Gallagher is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arthur that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arthur J's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arthur J's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arthur J's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arthur J's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arthur J's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arthur J is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arthur J's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.