Astra Agro Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| AALI Stock | IDR 6,675 125.00 1.84% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Astra Agro Lestari on the next trading day is expected to be 6,870 with a mean absolute deviation of 62.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,818. Astra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Astra Agro stock prices and determine the direction of Astra Agro Lestari's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Astra Agro's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. Astra |
Most investors in Astra Agro cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Astra Agro's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Astra Agro's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Astra Agro polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Astra Agro Lestari as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Astra Agro Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Astra Agro Lestari on the next trading day is expected to be 6,870 with a mean absolute deviation of 62.60, mean absolute percentage error of 6,800, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,818.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Astra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Astra Agro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Astra Agro Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Astra Agro | Astra Agro Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Astra Agro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Astra Agro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 126.9351 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 62.5972 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0092 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3818.4296 |
Predictive Modules for Astra Agro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astra Agro Lestari. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astra Agro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Astra Agro Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Astra Agro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Astra Agro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Astra Agro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Astra Agro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Astra Agro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Astra Agro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Astra Agro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Astra Agro Lestari entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.022 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.83) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6750.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6725.0 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 150.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (137.50) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (125.00) |
Astra Agro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Astra Agro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Astra Agro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting astra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5641 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7939 | |||
| Variance | 0.6303 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Astra Agro
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Astra Agro position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Astra Agro will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Astra Stock
| 0.67 | ASII | Astra International Tbk | PairCorr |
Moving against Astra Stock
| 0.67 | BMRI | Bank Mandiri Persero Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | ISAT | Indosat Tbk Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | BBNI | Bank Negara Indonesia | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | BBRI | Bank Rakyat Indonesia Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.53 | BBCA | Bank Central Asia Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Astra Agro could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Astra Agro when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Astra Agro - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Astra Agro Lestari to buy it.
The correlation of Astra Agro is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Astra Agro moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Astra Agro Lestari moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Astra Agro can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for Astra Stock analysis
When running Astra Agro's price analysis, check to measure Astra Agro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Astra Agro is operating at the current time. Most of Astra Agro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Astra Agro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Astra Agro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Astra Agro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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