Alcoa Corp Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AA Stock | USD 35.47 0.08 0.23% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alcoa Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 35.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.66. Alcoa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alcoa Corp stock prices and determine the direction of Alcoa Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alcoa Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Alcoa Corp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Alcoa Corp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alcoa Corp fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcoa Corp to cross-verify your projections. Alcoa |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Alcoa Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alcoa Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Alcoa Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Alcoa Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alcoa Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alcoa Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alcoa Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alcoa. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Alcoa Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alcoa Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alcoa Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Alcoa Corp works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Alcoa Corp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alcoa Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 35.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 0.81, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alcoa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alcoa Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alcoa Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alcoa Corp | Alcoa Corp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alcoa Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alcoa Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alcoa Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.54 and 38.86, respectively. We have considered Alcoa Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alcoa Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alcoa Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1087 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6943 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0232 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.6582 |
Predictive Modules for Alcoa Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcoa Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alcoa Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Alcoa Corp
For every potential investor in Alcoa, whether a beginner or expert, Alcoa Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alcoa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alcoa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alcoa Corp's price trends.Alcoa Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alcoa Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alcoa Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alcoa Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alcoa Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alcoa Corp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alcoa Corp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alcoa Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alcoa Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alcoa Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alcoa Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alcoa Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 815811.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.03) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 35.12 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 35.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.31 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.08) |
Alcoa Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alcoa Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alcoa Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alcoa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.1 | |||
| Variance | 9.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.65) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Alcoa Corp Investors Sentiment
The influence of Alcoa Corp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Alcoa. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Alcoa Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alcoa. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alcoa can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alcoa Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Alcoa Corp's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Alcoa Corp's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Alcoa Corp's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Alcoa Corp.
Alcoa Corp Implied Volatility | 85.03 |
Alcoa Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alcoa Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alcoa Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alcoa Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alcoa Corp's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alcoa Corp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alcoa Corp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alcoa Corp options trading.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcoa Corp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Alcoa Stock refer to our How to Trade Alcoa Stock guide.Note that the Alcoa Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcoa Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for Alcoa Stock analysis
When running Alcoa Corp's price analysis, check to measure Alcoa Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcoa Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Alcoa Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcoa Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcoa Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Pair Correlation Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments | |
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| Bond Analysis Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios. | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| Pattern Recognition Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges | |
| Portfolio File Import Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format |
Is Alcoa Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcoa Corp. If investors know Alcoa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcoa Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.81 | Dividend Share 0.3 | Earnings Share (3.65) | Revenue Per Share 58.771 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alcoa Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.