IBEX 35 Naive Prediction

IBEX -- Spain Index  

 9,207  15.10  0.16%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast IBEX 35 historic prices and determine the direction of IBEX 35 future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of IBEX 35 historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. See also fundamental analysis of IBEX 35 to check your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for IBEX 35 is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of IBEX 35 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of IBEX 35 on the next trading day is expected to be 9197.966427

IBEX 35 Prediction Pattern

IBEX 35 Forecasted Value

November 21, 2019
9,207
Market Value
9,198
Expected Value
9,201
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria127.4741
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation81.5479
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.009
SAESum of the absolute errors4974.4191
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of IBEX 35. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

IBEX 35 Risk Indicators

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