Will American International go ballistic in April

On 13 of March the company is traded for 43.05. American International has historical hype elasticity of -0.02. The average price elasticity to hype of competition is about -0.02. The entity is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 43.03. The average volatility of media hype impact on American International stock price is about 1010.0%. The closing price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.05% where as daily expected return is presently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on American International is about 841.67% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 43.03. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. What is American International Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price? Pertaining to normal probability distribution, the odds of American International to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 41.77%. The American International Group probability density function shows the probability of American International Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days . Considering 30-days investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.5082 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average . However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, American International will likely underperform. Additionally, the company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. American International is significantly underperforming S&P 500.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin

American International has performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows Beta (market volatility) of 1.5082 which signifies that as market goes up, the company is expected to significantly outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, American International will likely underperform. Although it is extremely important to respect American International historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patterns. The philosophy in foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing American International technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.0822% will be sustainable into the future. American International right now shows a risk of 2.0225%. Please confirm American International Treynor Ratio, Expected Short fall and the relationship between Jensen Alpha and Potential Upside to decide if American International will be following its price patterns.
The successful prediction of American International stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American International Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American International based on American International hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to American International's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American International's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project American expected Price

American International technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of American International technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of American International trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

Breaking down the case for American International

American International currently falls under 'Large-Cap' category with total capitalization of 36.69B. The current investor indifference towards the small price fluctuations of American International could raise concerns from investors as the firm closed today at a share price of 42.82 on 3611600 in volume. The company directors and management did not add any value to American International investors in February. However, most investors can still diversify their portfolios with American International to hedge your portfolio against high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days (very short) investing horizon is currently 2.0225. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in February 2019 as well as with American International unsystematic, company specific events. American International is trading at 43.05. This is 0.54% increase. Today highest was 43.43. American International Interest Expense is rather stable at the moment. Also, American International Sales per Share is rather stable at the moment.
 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 (projected)
American International Interest Expense 1,718,000,000  1,281,000,000  1,260,000,000  1,449,000,000  3,848,871,345 
American International Gross Profit 32,357,000,000  23,251,000,000  16,225,000,000  18,658,750,000  10,900,000,000 
To conclude, our ongoing Buy/Hold/Sell recommendation on the firm is Strong Hold. We believe American International is undervalued with close to average odds of financial distress for the next two years.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of American International Group. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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