Groupon Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy

GRPN Stock  USD 13.34  0.52  4.06%   
Groupon's likelihood of distress is over 50% at this time. It has a moderate risk of going through some financial distress in the next 2 years. Chance Of Bankruptcy shows the probability of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Groupon balance sheet, as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Check out Groupon Piotroski F Score and Groupon Altman Z Score analysis.
To learn how to invest in Groupon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Groupon guide.
  

Groupon Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

Groupon's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Gross Profit737.1M522.8M432.3M815.1M
Total Revenue967.1M599.1M514.9M489.2M

Probability Of Bankruptcy

 = 

Normalized

Z-Score

More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Groupon Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  Over 56%  
Most of Groupon's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Groupon is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Groupon probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Groupon odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Groupon financial health.
Is Groupon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Groupon. If investors know Groupon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Groupon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.092
Earnings Share
(1.77)
Revenue Per Share
16.481
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.07)
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Groupon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Groupon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Groupon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Groupon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Groupon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Groupon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Groupon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Groupon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Groupon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Groupon Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Groupon is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Groupon Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Groupon's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Groupon's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Groupon's interrelated accounts and indicators.
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The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Groupon has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 56%. This is 8.49% higher than that of the Internet & Direct Marketing Retail sector and significantly higher than that of the Consumer Discretionary industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 40.6% lower than that of the firm.

Groupon Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Groupon's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Groupon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Groupon by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
Groupon is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

Groupon Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Return On Assets(0.009007)(0.2)0.1(0.3)(0.097)(0.1)
Asset Turnover1.41.00.840.760.91.42
Gross Profit Margin0.50.530.480.760.870.84
Net Debt(425.7M)(330.2M)(116.6M)28.0M111.1M116.7M
Total Current Liabilities821.5M939.0M631.0M531.4M369.2M350.7M
Non Current Liabilities Total370.2M364.8M316.6M252.8M242.1M224.5M
Total Assets1.6B1.4B1.2B793.1M571.0M542.4M
Total Current Assets887.9M934.0M588.1M367.4M241.0M228.9M
Total Cash From Operating Activities71.3M(63.6M)(124.0M)(136.0M)(78.5M)(74.6M)

Groupon Fundamentals

About Groupon Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Groupon's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Groupon using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Groupon based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Groupon, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. Groupon, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. Groupon Cl operates under Internet Content Information classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 3675 people.

Groupon Investors Sentiment

The influence of Groupon's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Groupon. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Groupon's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Groupon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Groupon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Groupon. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Groupon's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Groupon's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Groupon's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Groupon.

Groupon Implied Volatility

    
  57.21  
Groupon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Groupon stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Groupon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Groupon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Groupon's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Groupon in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Groupon's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Groupon options trading.

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When determining whether Groupon offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Groupon's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Groupon Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Groupon Stock:
Check out Groupon Piotroski F Score and Groupon Altman Z Score analysis.
To learn how to invest in Groupon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Groupon guide.
You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.

Complementary Tools for Groupon Stock analysis

When running Groupon's price analysis, check to measure Groupon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Groupon is operating at the current time. Most of Groupon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Groupon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Groupon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Groupon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Groupon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Groupon. If investors know Groupon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Groupon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.092
Earnings Share
(1.77)
Revenue Per Share
16.481
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.07)
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Groupon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Groupon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Groupon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Groupon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Groupon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Groupon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Groupon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Groupon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Groupon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.