Erie Indemnity Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy

ERIE Stock  USD 401.57  6.60  1.62%   
Erie Indemnity's threat of distress is under 6% at the present time. It has tiny chance of undergoing some form of financial crisis in the near future. Erie Indemnity's Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting Erie Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Erie balance sheet, as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Check out Erie Indemnity Piotroski F Score and Erie Indemnity Altman Z Score analysis.
For information on how to trade Erie Stock refer to our How to Trade Erie Stock guide.
  

Erie Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

Erie Indemnity's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Gross Profit2.7B376.8M511.2M485.7M
Total Revenue2.7B2.8B3.3B2.2B

Probability Of Bankruptcy

 = 

Normalized

Z-Score

More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Erie Indemnity Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  Less than 6%  
Most of Erie Indemnity's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Erie Indemnity is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Erie Indemnity probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Erie Indemnity odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Erie Indemnity financial health.
Is Erie Indemnity's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Erie Indemnity. If investors know Erie will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Erie Indemnity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.697
Dividend Share
4.845
Earnings Share
8.55
Revenue Per Share
70.773
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.167
The market value of Erie Indemnity is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Erie that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Erie Indemnity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Erie Indemnity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Erie Indemnity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Erie Indemnity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Erie Indemnity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Erie Indemnity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Erie Indemnity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Erie Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Erie Indemnity is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Erie Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Erie Indemnity's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Erie Indemnity's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Erie Indemnity's interrelated accounts and indicators.
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The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Erie Indemnity has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 6.0%. This is 87.98% lower than that of the Insurance sector and 85.14% lower than that of the Financials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 84.94% higher than that of the company.

Erie Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Erie Indemnity's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Erie Indemnity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Erie Indemnity by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
Erie Indemnity is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

Erie Indemnity ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Erie Indemnity's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Erie Indemnity's managers, analysts, and investors.
Environment Score
Governance Score
Social Score

Erie Fundamentals

About Erie Indemnity Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Erie Indemnity's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Erie Indemnity using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Erie Indemnity based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. Erie Indemnity Company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania. Erie Indemnity operates under Insurance Brokers classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 5805 people.

Erie Indemnity Investors Sentiment

The influence of Erie Indemnity's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Erie. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Erie Indemnity's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Erie. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Erie can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Erie Indemnity. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Erie Indemnity's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Erie Indemnity's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Erie Indemnity's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Erie Indemnity.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Erie Indemnity in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Erie Indemnity's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Erie Indemnity options trading.

Pair Trading with Erie Indemnity

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Erie Indemnity position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Erie Indemnity will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Erie Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Erie Indemnity could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Erie Indemnity when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Erie Indemnity - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Erie Indemnity to buy it.
The correlation of Erie Indemnity is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Erie Indemnity moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Erie Indemnity moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Erie Indemnity can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Erie Indemnity is a strong investment it is important to analyze Erie Indemnity's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Erie Indemnity's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Erie Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Erie Indemnity Piotroski F Score and Erie Indemnity Altman Z Score analysis.
For information on how to trade Erie Stock refer to our How to Trade Erie Stock guide.
You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

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Is Erie Indemnity's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Erie Indemnity. If investors know Erie will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Erie Indemnity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.697
Dividend Share
4.845
Earnings Share
8.55
Revenue Per Share
70.773
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.167
The market value of Erie Indemnity is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Erie that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Erie Indemnity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Erie Indemnity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Erie Indemnity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Erie Indemnity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Erie Indemnity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Erie Indemnity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Erie Indemnity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.