Blackberry Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
BB Stock | USD 2.76 0.01 0.36% |
BlackBerry | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
BlackBerry Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis
BlackBerry's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Total Operating Expenses | 681M | 643M | 946M | 1.5B | Cost Of Revenue | 251M | 237M | 277M | 263.2M |
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current BlackBerry Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 33% |
Most of BlackBerry's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, BlackBerry is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of BlackBerry probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting BlackBerry odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of BlackBerry financial health.
Is BlackBerry's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BlackBerry. If investors know BlackBerry will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about BlackBerry listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.99) | Revenue Per Share 1.425 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.036 | Return On Assets (0.03) | Return On Equity (0.53) |
The market value of BlackBerry is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of BlackBerry that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of BlackBerry's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is BlackBerry's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because BlackBerry's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect BlackBerry's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between BlackBerry's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if BlackBerry is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BlackBerry's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
BlackBerry Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for BlackBerry is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of BlackBerry Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since BlackBerry's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of BlackBerry's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of BlackBerry's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, BlackBerry has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 33.0%. This is 18.44% lower than that of the Software sector and significantly higher than that of the Information Technology industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 17.15% higher than that of the company.
BlackBerry Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses BlackBerry's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of BlackBerry could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BlackBerry by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.BlackBerry is rated fifth in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
BlackBerry Fundamentals
Return On Equity | -0.53 | |||
Return On Asset | -0.0292 | |||
Profit Margin | (0.68) % | |||
Operating Margin | (0.02) % | |||
Current Valuation | 1.59 B | |||
Shares Outstanding | 585.65 M | |||
Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.66 % | |||
Shares Owned By Institutions | 52.39 % | |||
Number Of Shares Shorted | 43.29 M | |||
Price To Earning | 50.47 X | |||
Price To Book | 1.96 X | |||
Price To Sales | 1.95 X | |||
Revenue | 656 M | |||
Gross Profit | 467 M | |||
EBITDA | 515 M | |||
Net Income | (734 M) | |||
Cash And Equivalents | 295 M | |||
Cash Per Share | 1.11 X | |||
Total Debt | 419 M | |||
Debt To Equity | 0.40 % | |||
Current Ratio | 1.82 X | |||
Book Value Per Share | 1.41 X | |||
Cash Flow From Operations | (263 M) | |||
Short Ratio | 4.43 X | |||
Earnings Per Share | (0.99) X | |||
Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.13 X | |||
Target Price | 4.05 | |||
Number Of Employees | 3.18 K | |||
Beta | 1.09 | |||
Market Capitalization | 1.62 B | |||
Total Asset | 1.68 B | |||
Retained Earnings | (2.03 B) | |||
Working Capital | 14 M | |||
Current Asset | 2.4 B | |||
Current Liabilities | 826.98 M | |||
Z Score | 2.04 | |||
Net Asset | 1.68 B |
About BlackBerry Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze BlackBerry's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of BlackBerry using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of BlackBerry based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.BlackBerry Limited provides intelligent security software and services to enterprises and governments worldwide. BlackBerry Limited was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Waterloo, Canada. Blackberry is traded on New York Stock Exchange in the United States.
BlackBerry Investors Sentiment
The influence of BlackBerry's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in BlackBerry. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to BlackBerry's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in BlackBerry. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding BlackBerry can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around BlackBerry. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
BlackBerry's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for BlackBerry's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average BlackBerry's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on BlackBerry.
BlackBerry Implied Volatility | 135.8 |
BlackBerry's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of BlackBerry stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if BlackBerry's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that BlackBerry stock will not fluctuate a lot when BlackBerry's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards BlackBerry in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, BlackBerry's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from BlackBerry options trading.
Pair Trading with BlackBerry
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if BlackBerry position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in BlackBerry will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against BlackBerry Stock
0.79 | VRNT | Verint Systems Buyout Trend | PairCorr |
0.78 | MSFT | Microsoft Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 | PairCorr |
0.65 | VRNS | Varonis Systems Financial Report 6th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
0.65 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide Financial Report 7th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
0.52 | DTSS | Datasea | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to BlackBerry could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace BlackBerry when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back BlackBerry - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling BlackBerry to buy it.
The correlation of BlackBerry is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as BlackBerry moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if BlackBerry moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BlackBerry can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out BlackBerry Piotroski F Score and BlackBerry Altman Z Score analysis. For information on how to trade BlackBerry Stock refer to our How to Trade BlackBerry Stock guide.Note that the BlackBerry information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other BlackBerry's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Complementary Tools for BlackBerry Stock analysis
When running BlackBerry's price analysis, check to measure BlackBerry's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BlackBerry is operating at the current time. Most of BlackBerry's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BlackBerry's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BlackBerry's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BlackBerry to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is BlackBerry's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BlackBerry. If investors know BlackBerry will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about BlackBerry listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.99) | Revenue Per Share 1.425 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.036 | Return On Assets (0.03) | Return On Equity (0.53) |
The market value of BlackBerry is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of BlackBerry that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of BlackBerry's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is BlackBerry's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because BlackBerry's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect BlackBerry's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between BlackBerry's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if BlackBerry is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BlackBerry's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.