American Axle Manufacturing Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| AXL Stock | USD 6.97 0.02 0.29% |
American | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
American Axle Manufacturing Company odds of financial distress Analysis
American Axle's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current American Axle Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 38% |
Most of American Axle's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, American Axle Manufacturing is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of American Axle probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting American Axle odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of American Axle Manufacturing financial health.
Is American Axle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Axle. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Axle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.65) | Earnings Share (0.29) | Revenue Per Share 52.14 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.05 | Return On Assets 0.0198 |
The market value of American Axle Manufa is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Axle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Axle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Axle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Axle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Axle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Axle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Axle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
American Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for American Axle is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of American Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since American Axle's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of American Axle's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of American Axle's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, American Axle Manufacturing has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 38.0%. This is 8.19% lower than that of the Automobile Components sector and 12.29% higher than that of the Consumer Discretionary industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 4.59% higher than that of the company.
American Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses American Axle's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of American Axle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Axle by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.American Axle is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
American Axle Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | (0.0729) | (0.0948) | 0.001047 | 0.0118 | (0.006273) | (0.005959) | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.79 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.8 | 0.91 | 1.3 | |
| Net Debt | 3.1B | 3.0B | 2.7B | 2.5B | 2.5B | 1.6B | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 1.0B | 979.3M | 1.0B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 782.9M | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 4.6B | 4.6B | 4.1B | 3.6B | 3.5B | 2.6B | |
| Total Assets | 6.6B | 5.9B | 5.6B | 5.5B | 5.4B | 3.9B | |
| Total Current Assets | 1.9B | 1.9B | 1.9B | 2.0B | 2.0B | 1.2B | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 559.6M | 454.7M | 538.4M | 448.9M | 396.1M | 340.6M |
American Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -0.0545 | |||
| Return On Asset | 0.0198 | |||
| Profit Margin | (0.01) % | |||
| Operating Margin | 0.03 % | |||
| Current Valuation | 3.31 B | |||
| Shares Outstanding | 117.54 M | |||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 3.83 % | |||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 96.17 % | |||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 2.8 M | |||
| Price To Earning | 15.16 X | |||
| Price To Book | 1.37 X | |||
| Price To Sales | 0.14 X | |||
| Revenue | 6.08 B | |||
| Gross Profit | 665.8 M | |||
| EBITDA | 634.4 M | |||
| Net Income | (33.6 M) | |||
| Cash And Equivalents | 511.5 M | |||
| Cash Per Share | 4.14 X | |||
| Total Debt | 2.98 B | |||
| Debt To Equity | 6.38 % | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.69 X | |||
| Book Value Per Share | 5.17 X | |||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 396.1 M | |||
| Short Ratio | 0.87 X | |||
| Earnings Per Share | (0.29) X | |||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | (1.17) X | |||
| Target Price | 7.63 | |||
| Number Of Employees | 19 K | |||
| Beta | 2.23 | |||
| Market Capitalization | 825.13 M | |||
| Total Asset | 5.36 B | |||
| Retained Earnings | (283.2 M) | |||
| Working Capital | 805 M | |||
| Current Asset | 1.12 B | |||
| Current Liabilities | 699.2 M | |||
| Net Asset | 5.36 B |
About American Axle Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze American Axle Manufacturing's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of American Axle using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Axle Manufacturing based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Axle in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Axle's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Axle options trading.
Pair Trading with American Axle
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Axle position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Axle will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against American Stock
| 0.65 | LI | Li AutoInc Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | MOD | Modine Manufacturing Downward Rally | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | TM | Toyota Motor Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | DIBS | 1StdibsCom Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.59 | W | Wayfair Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Axle could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Axle when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Axle - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Axle Manufacturing to buy it.
The correlation of American Axle is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Axle moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Axle Manufa moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Axle can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out American Axle Piotroski F Score and American Axle Altman Z Score analysis. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Axle's price analysis, check to measure American Axle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Axle is operating at the current time. Most of American Axle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Axle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Axle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Axle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Axle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Axle. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Axle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.65) | Earnings Share (0.29) | Revenue Per Share 52.14 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.05 | Return On Assets 0.0198 |
The market value of American Axle Manufa is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Axle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Axle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Axle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Axle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Axle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Axle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Axle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.