Alleghany Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 637.877825

YDelisted Stock  USD 847.79  0.02  0%   
Alleghany's future price is the expected price of Alleghany instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Alleghany performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Your Current Watchlist to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in manufacturing.
  
Please specify Alleghany's target price for which you would like Alleghany odds to be computed.

Alleghany Target Price Odds to finish over 637.877825

The tendency of Alleghany Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 637.88  in 90 days
 847.79 90 days 637.88 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alleghany to stay above $ 637.88  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Alleghany probability density function shows the probability of Alleghany Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alleghany price to stay between $ 637.88  and its current price of $847.79 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Taking into account the 90-day investment horizon Alleghany has a beta of 0.0355. This entails as returns on the market go up, Alleghany average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alleghany will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alleghany has an alpha of 0.01, implying that it can generate a 0.009956 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Alleghany Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Alleghany

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alleghany. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alleghany's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
847.79847.79847.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
718.33718.33932.57
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
848.72848.72848.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
847.78847.79847.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alleghany. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alleghany's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alleghany's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Alleghany.

Alleghany Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alleghany is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alleghany's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alleghany, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alleghany within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.01
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.04
σ
Overall volatility
2.78
Ir
Information ratio -0.67

Alleghany Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alleghany for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alleghany can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Alleghany is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
Alleghany has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
Over 87.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors

Alleghany Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alleghany Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alleghany's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alleghany's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.71%
Short Percent Of Float3.82%
Float Shares12.99M
Shares Short Prior Month458.08k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day86.84k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month72.65k
Date Short Interest30th of September 2022

Alleghany Technical Analysis

Alleghany's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alleghany Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alleghany. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alleghany Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Alleghany Predictive Forecast Models

Alleghany's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alleghany's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alleghany's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Alleghany

Checking the ongoing alerts about Alleghany for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alleghany help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Alleghany is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
Alleghany has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
Over 87.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Check out Your Current Watchlist to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in manufacturing.
You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Other Consideration for investing in Alleghany Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Alleghany check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Alleghany's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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