General American Investors Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 43.54
| XGAMX Fund | USD 55.96 0.78 1.37% |
General |
General American Target Price Odds to finish over 43.54
The tendency of General Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 43.54 in 90 days |
| 55.96 | 90 days | 43.54 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of General American to stay above $ 43.54 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This General American Investors probability density function shows the probability of General Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of General American Inv price to stay between $ 43.54 and its current price of $55.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 81.62 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon General American has a beta of 0.86. This entails General American Investors market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, General American is expected to follow. Additionally General American Investors has an alpha of 0.0511, implying that it can generate a 0.0511 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). General American Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for General American
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as General American Inv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of General American's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
General American Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. General American is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the General American's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold General American Investors, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of General American within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.86 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
General American Technical Analysis
General American's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. General Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of General American Investors. In general, you should focus on analyzing General Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
General American Predictive Forecast Models
General American's time-series forecasting models is one of many General American's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary General American's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards General American in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, General American's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from General American options trading.
Check out General American Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, General American Correlation, General American Hype Analysis, General American Volatility, General American History as well as General American Performance. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Please note, there is a significant difference between General American's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if General American is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, General American's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.