ETFS Wheat (UK) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 0.7128

WEAT -- UK ETF  

USD 0.71  0.0155  2.24%

ETFS Wheat probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of ETFS Wheat ETC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify ETFS Wheat time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like ETFS Wheat odds to be computed. See also ETFS Wheat Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, ETFS Wheat Correlation, ETFS Wheat Hype Analysis, ETFS Wheat Volatility, ETFS Wheat History as well as ETFS Wheat Performance.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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ETFS Wheat Target Price Odds to finish over 0.7128

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 0.71  or more in 30 days
 0.71 30 days 0.71  ABOUT 29.45%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of ETFS Wheat to move over $ 0.71  or more in 30 days from now is about 29.45% (This ETFS Wheat ETC probability density function shows the probability of ETFS Wheat ETF to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of ETFS Commodity Secur price to stay between its current price of $ 0.71  and $ 0.71  at the end of the 30-day period is about 6.32%.
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, ETFS Wheat ETC has beta of -0.5322 . This means as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding ETFS Wheat are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, ETFS Wheat ETC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ETFS Wheat ETC has an alpha of 0.4531 implying that it can potentially generate 0.4531% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 ETFS Wheat Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.45
β
Beta against DOW=0.53
σ
Overall volatility
=0.027312
Ir
Information ratio =0.19

ETFS Wheat Alerts

ETFS Wheat Alerts and Suggestions
ETFS Commodity Secur has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Latest headline from bedfordnewsjournal.com: Digging into ETFS Commodity Securities Limited s Technicals
See also ETFS Wheat Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, ETFS Wheat Correlation, ETFS Wheat Hype Analysis, ETFS Wheat Volatility, ETFS Wheat History as well as ETFS Wheat Performance. Please also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.