ETFS Commodity (UK) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 0.7128

ETFS Commodity Securities Limited ETFS Wheat -- UK ETF  

USD 0.64  0.0035  0.54%

ETFS Commodity probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of ETFS Commodity Securities Limited ETFS Wheat performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify ETFS Commodity time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like ETFS Commodity odds to be computed. See also ETFS Commodity Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, ETFS Commodity Correlation, ETFS Commodity Hype Analysis, ETFS Commodity Volatility, ETFS Commodity History as well as ETFS Commodity Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Refresh Odds

ETFS Commodity Target Price Odds to finish over 0.7128

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 0.64 30 days 0.71  near 1% close to 100%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of ETFS Commodity to move over $ 0.71  or more in 30 days from now is near 1%. Probability of ETFS Commodity Secur price to stay between its current price of $ 0.64  and $ 0.71  at the end of the 30-day period is about 15.69%.
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, ETFS Commodity has beta of 0.0214 . This means as returns on market go up, ETFS Commodity average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding ETFS Commodity Securities Limited ETFS Wheat will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ETFS Commodity Securities Limited ETFS Wheat has an alpha of 0.36695604629999995 implying that it can potentially generate 0.36695604629999995% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
< 1%
Odds to move over $ 0.71  or more in 30 days
 ETFS Commodity Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.37
β
Beta against DOW=0.0214
σ
Overall volatility
=0.018094
Ir
Information ratio =0.47