United Parcel Service Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 109.947

UPS Stock  USD 147.33  3.54  2.46%   
United Parcel's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on United Parcel Service. Implied volatility approximates the future value of United Parcel based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in United Parcel Service over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $147.0 is a CALL option contract on United Parcel's common stock with a strick price of 147.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:59:15 for $0.95 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.98, and an ask price of $1.02. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 26.96. View All United options

Closest to current price United long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

United Parcel's future price is the expected price of United Parcel instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of United Parcel Service performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out United Parcel Backtesting, United Parcel Valuation, United Parcel Correlation, United Parcel Hype Analysis, United Parcel Volatility, United Parcel History as well as United Parcel Performance.
  
At this time, United Parcel's Price To Sales Ratio is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is likely to gain to 21.13 in 2024, whereas Price Book Value Ratio is likely to drop 7.42 in 2024. Please specify United Parcel's target price for which you would like United Parcel odds to be computed.

United Parcel Target Price Odds to finish below 109.947

The tendency of United Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 109.95  or more in 90 days
 147.33 90 days 109.95 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of United Parcel to drop to $ 109.95  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This United Parcel Service probability density function shows the probability of United Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of United Parcel Service price to stay between $ 109.95  and its current price of $147.33 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.96 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.27 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, United Parcel will likely underperform. Additionally United Parcel Service has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   United Parcel Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for United Parcel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Parcel Service. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Parcel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
145.53147.49149.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
132.60163.84165.80
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
142.02143.97145.93
Details
31 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
163.56179.74199.51
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as United Parcel. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against United Parcel's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, United Parcel's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in United Parcel Service.

United Parcel Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. United Parcel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the United Parcel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold United Parcel Service, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of United Parcel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.23
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.27
σ
Overall volatility
5.50
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

United Parcel Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of United Parcel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for United Parcel Service can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
United Parcel generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 72.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
On 8th of March 2024 United Parcel paid $ 1.63 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: UPS recovers some ground after analysts say sell-off was overdone

United Parcel Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of United Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential United Parcel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Parcel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding860 M
Cash And Short Term Investments6.1 B

United Parcel Technical Analysis

United Parcel's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. United Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of United Parcel Service. In general, you should focus on analyzing United Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

United Parcel Predictive Forecast Models

United Parcel's time-series forecasting models is one of many United Parcel's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary United Parcel's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about United Parcel Service

Checking the ongoing alerts about United Parcel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for United Parcel Service help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
United Parcel generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 72.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
On 8th of March 2024 United Parcel paid $ 1.63 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: UPS recovers some ground after analysts say sell-off was overdone
When determining whether United Parcel Service is a strong investment it is important to analyze United Parcel's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact United Parcel's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding United Stock, refer to the following important reports:

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When running United Parcel's price analysis, check to measure United Parcel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Parcel is operating at the current time. Most of United Parcel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Parcel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Parcel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Parcel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is United Parcel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Parcel. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Parcel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.53)
Dividend Share
6.48
Earnings Share
7.79
Revenue Per Share
105.888
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.08)
The market value of United Parcel Service is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Parcel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Parcel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Parcel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Parcel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Parcel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Parcel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Parcel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.