Starbucks Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 54.75

SBUX Stock  USD 91.39  0.11  0.12%   
Starbucks' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Starbucks. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Starbucks based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Starbucks over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-05 CALL at $91.0 is a CALL option contract on Starbucks' common stock with a strick price of 91.0 expiring on 2024-04-05. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-28 at 15:56:27 for $1.03 and, as of today, has 7 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.02, and an ask price of $1.06. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 15.71. View All Starbucks options

Closest to current price Starbucks long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Starbucks' future price is the expected price of Starbucks instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Starbucks performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Starbucks Backtesting, Starbucks Valuation, Starbucks Correlation, Starbucks Hype Analysis, Starbucks Volatility, Starbucks History as well as Starbucks Performance.
For more information on how to buy Starbucks Stock please use our How to Invest in Starbucks guide.
  
At this time, Starbucks' Price To Sales Ratio is fairly stable compared to the past year. Price Book Value Ratio is likely to rise to 69.00 in 2024, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop 16.16 in 2024. Please specify Starbucks' target price for which you would like Starbucks odds to be computed.

Starbucks Target Price Odds to finish below 54.75

The tendency of Starbucks Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 54.75  or more in 90 days
 91.39 90 days 54.75 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Starbucks to drop to $ 54.75  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Starbucks probability density function shows the probability of Starbucks Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Starbucks price to stay between $ 54.75  and its current price of $91.39 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.4 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Starbucks has a beta of 0.73. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Starbucks average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Starbucks will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Starbucks has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Starbucks Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Starbucks

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Starbucks. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Starbucks' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
90.2591.3392.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
82.2599.03100.11
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
91.2392.3193.40
Details
34 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
96.03105.53117.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Starbucks. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Starbucks' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Starbucks' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Starbucks.

Starbucks Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Starbucks is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Starbucks' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Starbucks, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Starbucks within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.15
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.73
σ
Overall volatility
1.63
Ir
Information ratio -0.17

Starbucks Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Starbucks for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Starbucks can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Starbucks generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Starbucks has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
The company currently holds 24.6 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 807.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Starbucks has a current ratio of 0.75, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Starbucks until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Starbucks' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Starbucks sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Starbucks to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Starbucks' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 76.0% of Starbucks shares are owned by institutional investors
On 23rd of February 2024 Starbucks paid $ 0.57 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from benzinga.com: 100 Invested In This Stock 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth 1,600 Today

Starbucks Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Starbucks Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Starbucks' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Starbucks' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.1 B
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB

Starbucks Technical Analysis

Starbucks' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Starbucks Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Starbucks. In general, you should focus on analyzing Starbucks Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Starbucks Predictive Forecast Models

Starbucks' time-series forecasting models is one of many Starbucks' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Starbucks' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Starbucks

Checking the ongoing alerts about Starbucks for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Starbucks help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Starbucks generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Starbucks has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
The company currently holds 24.6 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 807.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Starbucks has a current ratio of 0.75, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Starbucks until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Starbucks' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Starbucks sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Starbucks to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Starbucks' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 76.0% of Starbucks shares are owned by institutional investors
On 23rd of February 2024 Starbucks paid $ 0.57 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from benzinga.com: 100 Invested In This Stock 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth 1,600 Today
When determining whether Starbucks offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Starbucks' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Starbucks Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Starbucks Stock:
Check out Starbucks Backtesting, Starbucks Valuation, Starbucks Correlation, Starbucks Hype Analysis, Starbucks Volatility, Starbucks History as well as Starbucks Performance.
For more information on how to buy Starbucks Stock please use our How to Invest in Starbucks guide.
You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Complementary Tools for Starbucks Stock analysis

When running Starbucks' price analysis, check to measure Starbucks' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Starbucks is operating at the current time. Most of Starbucks' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Starbucks' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Starbucks' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Starbucks to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Starbucks' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Starbucks. If investors know Starbucks will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Starbucks listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.216
Dividend Share
2.2
Earnings Share
3.74
Revenue Per Share
32.074
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.082
The market value of Starbucks is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Starbucks that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Starbucks' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Starbucks' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Starbucks' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Starbucks' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Starbucks' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Starbucks is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Starbucks' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.