Capital Income Builder Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 56.73

RIRAX Fund  USD 68.28  0.58  0.86%   
Capital Income's future price is the expected price of Capital Income instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Capital Income Builder performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Capital Income Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Capital Income Correlation, Capital Income Hype Analysis, Capital Income Volatility, Capital Income History as well as Capital Income Performance.
  
Please specify Capital Income's target price for which you would like Capital Income odds to be computed.

Capital Income Target Price Odds to finish over 56.73

The tendency of Capital Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 56.73  in 90 days
 68.28 90 days 56.73 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Capital Income to stay above $ 56.73  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Capital Income Builder probability density function shows the probability of Capital Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Capital Income Builder price to stay between $ 56.73  and its current price of $68.28 at the end of the 90-day period is about 99.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Capital Income has a beta of 0.71 indicating as returns on the market go up, Capital Income average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Capital Income Builder will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Capital Income Builder has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Capital Income Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Capital Income

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Capital Income Builder. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Capital Income's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
67.8368.2868.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
67.4167.8668.31
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
67.4667.9168.36
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
67.4167.9268.43
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Capital Income. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Capital Income's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Capital Income's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Capital Income Builder.

Capital Income Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Capital Income is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Capital Income's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Capital Income Builder, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Capital Income within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.03
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.71
σ
Overall volatility
0.88
Ir
Information ratio -0.16

Capital Income Technical Analysis

Capital Income's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Capital Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Capital Income Builder. In general, you should focus on analyzing Capital Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Capital Income Predictive Forecast Models

Capital Income's time-series forecasting models is one of many Capital Income's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Capital Income's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Capital Income in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Capital Income's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Capital Income options trading.
Check out Capital Income Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Capital Income Correlation, Capital Income Hype Analysis, Capital Income Volatility, Capital Income History as well as Capital Income Performance.
Note that the Capital Income Builder information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Capital Income's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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When running Capital Income's price analysis, check to measure Capital Income's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Capital Income is operating at the current time. Most of Capital Income's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Capital Income's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Capital Income's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Capital Income to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Capital Income's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Capital Income is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Capital Income's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.