Polaris Industries Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 130.63

PII Stock  USD 100.19  1.11  1.12%   
Polaris Industries' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Polaris Industries. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Polaris Industries based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Polaris Industries over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $100.0 is a CALL option contract on Polaris Industries' common stock with a strick price of 100.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:58:59 for $2.5 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.45, and an ask price of $2.65. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 29.44. View All Polaris options

Closest to current price Polaris long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Polaris Industries' future price is the expected price of Polaris Industries instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Polaris Industries performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Polaris Industries Backtesting, Polaris Industries Valuation, Polaris Industries Correlation, Polaris Industries Hype Analysis, Polaris Industries Volatility, Polaris Industries History as well as Polaris Industries Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Polaris Stock please use our How to Invest in Polaris Industries guide.
  
As of now, Polaris Industries' Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is decreasing as compared to previous years. The Polaris Industries' current Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is estimated to increase to 10.33, while Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is forecasted to increase to (0.76). Please specify Polaris Industries' target price for which you would like Polaris Industries odds to be computed.

Polaris Industries Target Price Odds to finish below 130.63

The tendency of Polaris Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 130.63  after 90 days
 100.19 90 days 130.63 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Polaris Industries to stay under $ 130.63  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Polaris Industries probability density function shows the probability of Polaris Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Polaris Industries price to stay between its current price of $ 100.19  and $ 130.63  at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.5 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Polaris Industries will likely underperform. Additionally Polaris Industries has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Polaris Industries Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Polaris Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Polaris Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Polaris Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
98.65100.31101.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
90.11105.28106.94
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
99.57101.23102.89
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
110.53121.46134.82
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Polaris Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Polaris Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Polaris Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Polaris Industries.

Polaris Industries Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Polaris Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Polaris Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Polaris Industries, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Polaris Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.1
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.50
σ
Overall volatility
2.36
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

Polaris Industries Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Polaris Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Polaris Industries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 15th of March 2024 Polaris Industries paid $ 0.66 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Global Low-Speed Electric Vehicle Market to Hit Valuation of USD 33.48 Billion By 2032, at 22.5 percent CAGR Astute Analytica

Polaris Industries Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Polaris Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Polaris Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Polaris Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding57.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments367.8 M

Polaris Industries Technical Analysis

Polaris Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Polaris Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Polaris Industries. In general, you should focus on analyzing Polaris Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Polaris Industries Predictive Forecast Models

Polaris Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many Polaris Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Polaris Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Polaris Industries

Checking the ongoing alerts about Polaris Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Polaris Industries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 15th of March 2024 Polaris Industries paid $ 0.66 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Global Low-Speed Electric Vehicle Market to Hit Valuation of USD 33.48 Billion By 2032, at 22.5 percent CAGR Astute Analytica
When determining whether Polaris Industries offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Polaris Industries' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Polaris Industries Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Polaris Industries Stock:

Complementary Tools for Polaris Stock analysis

When running Polaris Industries' price analysis, check to measure Polaris Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Polaris Industries is operating at the current time. Most of Polaris Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Polaris Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Polaris Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Polaris Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Polaris Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Polaris Industries. If investors know Polaris will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Polaris Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.46)
Dividend Share
2.6
Earnings Share
8.71
Revenue Per Share
157.877
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.04)
The market value of Polaris Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Polaris that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Polaris Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Polaris Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Polaris Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Polaris Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Polaris Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Polaris Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Polaris Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.