Oreilly Automotive Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 309.46

ORLY Stock  USD 1,136  0.74  0.07%   
OReilly Automotive's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on OReilly Automotive. Implied volatility approximates the future value of OReilly Automotive based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in OReilly Automotive over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $1140.0 is a CALL option contract on OReilly Automotive's common stock with a strick price of 1140.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-26 at 12:08:13 for $24.2 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $18.5, and an ask price of $19.5. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 17.45. View All OReilly options

Closest to current price OReilly long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

OReilly Automotive's future price is the expected price of OReilly Automotive instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of OReilly Automotive performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out OReilly Automotive Backtesting, OReilly Automotive Valuation, OReilly Automotive Correlation, OReilly Automotive Hype Analysis, OReilly Automotive Volatility, OReilly Automotive History as well as OReilly Automotive Performance.
For more information on how to buy OReilly Stock please use our How to Invest in OReilly Automotive guide.
  
At this time, OReilly Automotive's Price Earnings Ratio is fairly stable compared to the past year. Price To Sales Ratio is likely to rise to 3.82 in 2024, despite the fact that Price Book Value Ratio is likely to grow to (31.38). Please specify OReilly Automotive's target price for which you would like OReilly Automotive odds to be computed.

OReilly Automotive Target Price Odds to finish over 309.46

The tendency of OReilly Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 309.46  in 90 days
 1,136 90 days 309.46 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of OReilly Automotive to stay above $ 309.46  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This OReilly Automotive probability density function shows the probability of OReilly Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of OReilly Automotive price to stay between $ 309.46  and its current price of $1135.52 at the end of the 90-day period is more than 93.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days OReilly Automotive has a beta of 0.18. This indicates as returns on the market go up, OReilly Automotive average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding OReilly Automotive will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally OReilly Automotive has an alpha of 0.2324, implying that it can generate a 0.23 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   OReilly Automotive Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for OReilly Automotive

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OReilly Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of OReilly Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,1341,1361,137
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,0901,0911,249
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
1,1271,1281,129
Details
29 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
930.571,0231,135
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as OReilly Automotive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against OReilly Automotive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, OReilly Automotive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in OReilly Automotive.

OReilly Automotive Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. OReilly Automotive is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the OReilly Automotive's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold OReilly Automotive, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of OReilly Automotive within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.23
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.18
σ
Overall volatility
65.52
Ir
Information ratio 0.11

OReilly Automotive Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of OReilly Automotive for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for OReilly Automotive can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company currently holds 7.84 B in liabilities. OReilly Automotive has a current ratio of 0.69, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist OReilly Automotive until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, OReilly Automotive's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like OReilly Automotive sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for OReilly to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about OReilly Automotive's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 275 shares by Shari Reaves of OReilly Automotive at 1041.75 subject to Rule 16b-3

OReilly Automotive Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of OReilly Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential OReilly Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. OReilly Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding61 M
Cash And Short Term Investments279.1 M

OReilly Automotive Technical Analysis

OReilly Automotive's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. OReilly Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of OReilly Automotive. In general, you should focus on analyzing OReilly Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

OReilly Automotive Predictive Forecast Models

OReilly Automotive's time-series forecasting models is one of many OReilly Automotive's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary OReilly Automotive's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about OReilly Automotive

Checking the ongoing alerts about OReilly Automotive for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for OReilly Automotive help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company currently holds 7.84 B in liabilities. OReilly Automotive has a current ratio of 0.69, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist OReilly Automotive until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, OReilly Automotive's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like OReilly Automotive sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for OReilly to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about OReilly Automotive's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 275 shares by Shari Reaves of OReilly Automotive at 1041.75 subject to Rule 16b-3
When determining whether OReilly Automotive offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of OReilly Automotive's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Oreilly Automotive Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Oreilly Automotive Stock:

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When running OReilly Automotive's price analysis, check to measure OReilly Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OReilly Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of OReilly Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OReilly Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OReilly Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OReilly Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is OReilly Automotive's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of OReilly Automotive. If investors know OReilly will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about OReilly Automotive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.107
Earnings Share
38.49
Revenue Per Share
261.468
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.051
Return On Assets
0.1504
The market value of OReilly Automotive is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of OReilly that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of OReilly Automotive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is OReilly Automotive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because OReilly Automotive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect OReilly Automotive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between OReilly Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if OReilly Automotive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, OReilly Automotive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.