Novartis Ag Adr Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 104.33

NVS Stock  USD 95.88  0.61  0.64%   
Novartis' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Novartis AG ADR. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Novartis based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Novartis AG ADR over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $95.0 is a CALL option contract on Novartis' common stock with a strick price of 95.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 13:35:50 for $2.0 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.95, and an ask price of $2.05. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 17.65. View All Novartis options

Closest to current price Novartis long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Novartis' future price is the expected price of Novartis instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Novartis AG ADR performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Novartis Backtesting, Novartis Valuation, Novartis Correlation, Novartis Hype Analysis, Novartis Volatility, Novartis History as well as Novartis Performance.
  
At this time, Novartis' Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is likely to gain to 19.28 in 2024, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop 3.66 in 2024. Please specify Novartis' target price for which you would like Novartis odds to be computed.

Novartis Target Price Odds to finish over 104.33

The tendency of Novartis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 104.33  or more in 90 days
 95.88 90 days 104.33 
about 5.06
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Novartis to move over $ 104.33  or more in 90 days from now is about 5.06 (This Novartis AG ADR probability density function shows the probability of Novartis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Novartis AG ADR price to stay between its current price of $ 95.88  and $ 104.33  at the end of the 90-day period is about 82.61 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Novartis has a beta of 0.4. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Novartis average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Novartis AG ADR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Novartis AG ADR has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Novartis Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Novartis

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Novartis AG ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novartis' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
94.7895.8696.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
86.29105.31106.39
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
92.8193.8894.96
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
102.60112.75125.15
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Novartis. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Novartis' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Novartis' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Novartis AG ADR.

Novartis Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Novartis is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Novartis' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Novartis AG ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Novartis within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.03
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.40
σ
Overall volatility
3.02
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Novartis Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Novartis for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Novartis AG ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Novartis AG ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Novartis AG ADR has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from zacks.com: Novartis Increases Yet Falls Behind Market What Investors Need to Know

Novartis Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Novartis Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Novartis' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Novartis' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments14 B

Novartis Technical Analysis

Novartis' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Novartis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Novartis AG ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Novartis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Novartis Predictive Forecast Models

Novartis' time-series forecasting models is one of many Novartis' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Novartis' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Novartis AG ADR

Checking the ongoing alerts about Novartis for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Novartis AG ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Novartis AG ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Novartis AG ADR has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from zacks.com: Novartis Increases Yet Falls Behind Market What Investors Need to Know
When determining whether Novartis AG ADR is a strong investment it is important to analyze Novartis' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Novartis' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Novartis Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Novartis Stock analysis

When running Novartis' price analysis, check to measure Novartis' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novartis is operating at the current time. Most of Novartis' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novartis' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novartis' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novartis to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Novartis' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novartis. If investors know Novartis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novartis listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
4.987
Dividend Share
3.919
Earnings Share
4.1
Revenue Per Share
22.467
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.074
The market value of Novartis AG ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novartis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novartis' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novartis' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novartis' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novartis' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novartis' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novartis is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novartis' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.