Nio Class A Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.82

NIO Stock  USD 4.67  0.11  2.30%   
Nio's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Nio Class A. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Nio based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Nio Class A over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $4.5 is a CALL option contract on Nio's common stock with a strick price of 4.5 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:58:55 for $0.21 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.17, and an ask price of $0.21. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 108.36. View All Nio options

Closest to current price Nio long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Nio's future price is the expected price of Nio instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Nio Class A performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Nio Backtesting, Nio Valuation, Nio Correlation, Nio Hype Analysis, Nio Volatility, Nio History as well as Nio Performance.
  
At this time, Nio's Price Book Value Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Price To Book Ratio is likely to grow to 4.36, while Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop (9.21). Please specify Nio's target price for which you would like Nio odds to be computed.

Nio Target Price Odds to finish over 3.82

The tendency of Nio Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 3.82  in 90 days
 4.67 90 days 3.82 
about 98.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nio to stay above $ 3.82  in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Nio Class A probability density function shows the probability of Nio Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Nio Class A price to stay between $ 3.82  and its current price of $4.67 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.49 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.47 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Nio will likely underperform. Additionally Nio Class A has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Nio Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Nio

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nio Class A. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.544.378.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.467.2911.12
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.624.458.29
Details
28 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.8415.2116.88
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nio. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nio's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nio's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Nio Class A.

Nio Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nio is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nio's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nio Class A, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nio within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-1.1
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.47
σ
Overall volatility
1.19
Ir
Information ratio -0.23

Nio Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nio for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nio Class A can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Nio Class A generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Nio Class A has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Nio Class A has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 49.27 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (14.44 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.14 B.
Nio Class A has about 19.89 B in cash with (3.87 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 27.32, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Nio Class A has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Nio Just Cut Delivery Estimates. Is It Time to Sell the Stock

Nio Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nio Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nio's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nio's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.6 B
Cash And Short Term Investments39.1 B

Nio Technical Analysis

Nio's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nio Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nio Class A. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nio Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Nio Predictive Forecast Models

Nio's time-series forecasting models is one of many Nio's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Nio's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Nio Class A

Checking the ongoing alerts about Nio for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nio Class A help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Nio Class A generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Nio Class A has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Nio Class A has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 49.27 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (14.44 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.14 B.
Nio Class A has about 19.89 B in cash with (3.87 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 27.32, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Nio Class A has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Nio Just Cut Delivery Estimates. Is It Time to Sell the Stock
When determining whether Nio Class A offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Nio's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Nio Class A Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Nio Class A Stock:

Complementary Tools for Nio Stock analysis

When running Nio's price analysis, check to measure Nio's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nio is operating at the current time. Most of Nio's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nio's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nio's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nio to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Bonds Directory
Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
ETFs
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Is Nio's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nio. If investors know Nio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.74)
Revenue Per Share
32.713
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.065
Return On Assets
(0.13)
Return On Equity
(0.73)
The market value of Nio Class A is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.