Merlin Properties (Spain) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 9.80

MRL Stock  EUR 9.80  0.10  1.03%   
Merlin Properties' future price is the expected price of Merlin Properties instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Merlin Properties SOCIMI performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Merlin Properties Backtesting, Merlin Properties Valuation, Merlin Properties Correlation, Merlin Properties Hype Analysis, Merlin Properties Volatility, Merlin Properties History as well as Merlin Properties Performance.
  
Please specify Merlin Properties' target price for which you would like Merlin Properties odds to be computed.

Merlin Properties Target Price Odds to finish over 9.80

The tendency of Merlin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 9.80 90 days 9.80 
about 9.47
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merlin Properties to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 9.47 (This Merlin Properties SOCIMI probability density function shows the probability of Merlin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Merlin Properties SOCIMI has a beta of -0.12. This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Merlin Properties are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Merlin Properties SOCIMI is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Merlin Properties SOCIMI has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Merlin Properties Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Merlin Properties

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merlin Properties SOCIMI. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merlin Properties' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.649.8010.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.068.2210.78
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
8.789.9411.10
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9.539.709.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merlin Properties. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merlin Properties' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merlin Properties' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Merlin Properties SOCIMI.

Merlin Properties Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merlin Properties is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merlin Properties' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merlin Properties SOCIMI, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merlin Properties within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.04
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.12
σ
Overall volatility
0.32
Ir
Information ratio -0.16

Merlin Properties Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merlin Properties for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merlin Properties SOCIMI can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Merlin Properties generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Merlin Properties Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Merlin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Merlin Properties' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merlin Properties' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding474.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments942.9 M

Merlin Properties Technical Analysis

Merlin Properties' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Merlin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Merlin Properties SOCIMI. In general, you should focus on analyzing Merlin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Merlin Properties Predictive Forecast Models

Merlin Properties' time-series forecasting models is one of many Merlin Properties' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Merlin Properties' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Merlin Properties SOCIMI

Checking the ongoing alerts about Merlin Properties for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Merlin Properties SOCIMI help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Merlin Properties generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Check out Merlin Properties Backtesting, Merlin Properties Valuation, Merlin Properties Correlation, Merlin Properties Hype Analysis, Merlin Properties Volatility, Merlin Properties History as well as Merlin Properties Performance.
You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

Complementary Tools for Merlin Stock analysis

When running Merlin Properties' price analysis, check to measure Merlin Properties' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merlin Properties is operating at the current time. Most of Merlin Properties' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merlin Properties' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merlin Properties' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merlin Properties to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Merlin Properties' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Merlin Properties is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merlin Properties' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.