Molina Healthcare Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 130.23
| MOH Stock | USD 361.87 5.65 1.54% |
Closest to current price Molina long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Molina |
Molina Healthcare Target Price Odds to finish over 130.23
The tendency of Molina Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 130.23 in 90 days |
| 361.87 | 90 days | 130.23 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Molina Healthcare to stay above $ 130.23 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Molina Healthcare probability density function shows the probability of Molina Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Molina Healthcare price to stay between $ 130.23 and its current price of $361.87 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.26 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Molina Healthcare has a beta of 0.44. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Molina Healthcare average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Molina Healthcare will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Molina Healthcare has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Molina Healthcare Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Molina Healthcare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Molina Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Molina Healthcare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Molina Healthcare Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Molina Healthcare is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Molina Healthcare's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Molina Healthcare, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Molina Healthcare within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 20.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Molina Healthcare Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Molina Healthcare for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Molina Healthcare can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Molina Healthcare generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Molina Healthcare of Nevada Donates 2.8 Million to Local Partners to Improve Access to Care |
Molina Healthcare Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Molina Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Molina Healthcare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Molina Healthcare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.1 B |
Molina Healthcare Technical Analysis
Molina Healthcare's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Molina Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Molina Healthcare. In general, you should focus on analyzing Molina Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Molina Healthcare Predictive Forecast Models
Molina Healthcare's time-series forecasting models is one of many Molina Healthcare's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Molina Healthcare's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Molina Healthcare
Checking the ongoing alerts about Molina Healthcare for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Molina Healthcare help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Molina Healthcare generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Molina Healthcare of Nevada Donates 2.8 Million to Local Partners to Improve Access to Care |
Check out Molina Healthcare Backtesting, Molina Healthcare Valuation, Molina Healthcare Correlation, Molina Healthcare Hype Analysis, Molina Healthcare Volatility, Molina Healthcare History as well as Molina Healthcare Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Molina Stock please use our How to Invest in Molina Healthcare guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Molina Stock analysis
When running Molina Healthcare's price analysis, check to measure Molina Healthcare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Molina Healthcare is operating at the current time. Most of Molina Healthcare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Molina Healthcare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Molina Healthcare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Molina Healthcare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Molina Healthcare's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Molina Healthcare. If investors know Molina will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Molina Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.842 | Earnings Share 18.78 | Revenue Per Share 571.976 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.063 | Return On Assets 0.0743 |
The market value of Molina Healthcare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Molina that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Molina Healthcare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Molina Healthcare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Molina Healthcare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Molina Healthcare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Molina Healthcare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Molina Healthcare is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Molina Healthcare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.