Medifast Inc Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 103.68
| MED Stock | USD 32.60 0.16 0.49% |
MEDIFAST |
MEDIFAST INC Target Price Odds to finish below 103.68
The tendency of MEDIFAST Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 103.68 after 90 days |
| 32.60 | 90 days | 103.68 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MEDIFAST INC to stay under $ 103.68 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This MEDIFAST INC probability density function shows the probability of MEDIFAST Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MEDIFAST INC price to stay between its current price of $ 32.60 and $ 103.68 at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.02 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.41 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, MEDIFAST INC will likely underperform. Additionally MEDIFAST INC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. MEDIFAST INC Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MEDIFAST INC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MEDIFAST INC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MEDIFAST INC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MEDIFAST INC Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MEDIFAST INC is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MEDIFAST INC's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MEDIFAST INC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MEDIFAST INC within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.85 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.24 |
MEDIFAST INC Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MEDIFAST INC for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MEDIFAST INC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MEDIFAST INC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MEDIFAST INC has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
MEDIFAST INC Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MEDIFAST Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MEDIFAST INC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MEDIFAST INC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 150 M |
MEDIFAST INC Technical Analysis
MEDIFAST INC's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MEDIFAST Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MEDIFAST INC. In general, you should focus on analyzing MEDIFAST Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MEDIFAST INC Predictive Forecast Models
MEDIFAST INC's time-series forecasting models is one of many MEDIFAST INC's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MEDIFAST INC's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MEDIFAST INC
Checking the ongoing alerts about MEDIFAST INC for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MEDIFAST INC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MEDIFAST INC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MEDIFAST INC has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Check out MEDIFAST INC Backtesting, MEDIFAST INC Valuation, MEDIFAST INC Correlation, MEDIFAST INC Hype Analysis, MEDIFAST INC Volatility, MEDIFAST INC History as well as MEDIFAST INC Performance. For information on how to trade MEDIFAST Stock refer to our How to Trade MEDIFAST Stock guide.Note that the MEDIFAST INC information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other MEDIFAST INC's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Complementary Tools for MEDIFAST Stock analysis
When running MEDIFAST INC's price analysis, check to measure MEDIFAST INC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MEDIFAST INC is operating at the current time. Most of MEDIFAST INC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MEDIFAST INC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MEDIFAST INC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MEDIFAST INC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is MEDIFAST INC's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MEDIFAST INC. If investors know MEDIFAST will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MEDIFAST INC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of MEDIFAST INC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MEDIFAST that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MEDIFAST INC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MEDIFAST INC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MEDIFAST INC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MEDIFAST INC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MEDIFAST INC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MEDIFAST INC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MEDIFAST INC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.