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Macys Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 16.99

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M -- USA Stock  

Earning Report: February 25, 2020  

Macys probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Macys performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Macys time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Macys odds to be computed. Additionally see Macys Backtesting, Macys Valuation, Macys Correlation, Macys Hype Analysis, Macys Volatility, Macys History as well as Macys Performance.
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Macys Target Price Odds to finish below 16.99

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 16.99  after 30 days
 16.60 30 days 16.99 
about 75.02
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Macys to stay under $ 16.99  after 30 days from now is about 75.02 (This Macys probability density function shows the probability of Macys Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Macys price to stay between its current price of $ 16.60  and $ 16.99  at the end of the 30-day period is about 16.08 .
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.2 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average . However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Macys will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Macys is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Macys Price Density 
    
  Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.02
β
Beta against DOW=1.20
σ
Overall volatility
=0.87
Ir
Information ratio =0.001

Macys Alerts and Suggestions

Macys has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its interest payments
Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
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MacysPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out27.18%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.51
Short Percent Of Float30.99%
Float Shares308.24M
Shares Short Prior Month88.95M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day7.9M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month16.6M
Date Short InterestJanuary 31, 2020
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield9.02%