Macys Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.3

M Stock  USD 19.85  0.77  4.04%   
Macys' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Macys Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Macys based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Macys Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $20.0 is a CALL option contract on Macys' common stock with a strick price of 20.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:44:22 for $0.13 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.12, and an ask price of $0.14. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 47.35. View All Macys options

Closest to current price Macys long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Macys' future price is the expected price of Macys instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Macys Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Macys Backtesting, Macys Valuation, Macys Correlation, Macys Hype Analysis, Macys Volatility, Macys History as well as Macys Performance.
  
At this time, Macys' Price Sales Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Price Fair Value is likely to grow to 4.22, while Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop 14.87. Please specify Macys' target price for which you would like Macys odds to be computed.

Macys Target Price Odds to finish below 16.3

The tendency of Macys Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 16.30  or more in 90 days
 19.85 90 days 16.30 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Macys to drop to $ 16.30  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Macys Inc probability density function shows the probability of Macys Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Macys Inc price to stay between $ 16.30  and its current price of $19.85 at the end of the 90-day period is about 71.35 .
Taking into account the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.79 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Macys will likely underperform. Additionally Macys Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Macys Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Macys

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Macys Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Macys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.9419.8122.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.3117.1820.05
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
15.6718.5421.41
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.4014.7316.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Macys. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Macys' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Macys' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Macys Inc.

Macys Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Macys is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Macys' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Macys Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Macys within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.2
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.79
σ
Overall volatility
1.05
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Macys Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Macys for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Macys Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Macys Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from prnewswire.com: Thinking about trading options or stock in Advanced Micro Devices, Equillium, Macys, Alphabet, or Phillips 66

Macys Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Macys Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Macys' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Macys' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding278.2 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB

Macys Technical Analysis

Macys' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Macys Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Macys Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Macys Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Macys Predictive Forecast Models

Macys' time-series forecasting models is one of many Macys' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Macys' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Macys Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Macys for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Macys Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Macys Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from prnewswire.com: Thinking about trading options or stock in Advanced Micro Devices, Equillium, Macys, Alphabet, or Phillips 66
When determining whether Macys Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Macys' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Macys' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Macys Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Macys Backtesting, Macys Valuation, Macys Correlation, Macys Hype Analysis, Macys Volatility, Macys History as well as Macys Performance.
You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

Complementary Tools for Macys Stock analysis

When running Macys' price analysis, check to measure Macys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Macys is operating at the current time. Most of Macys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Macys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Macys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Macys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Macys' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Macys. If investors know Macys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Macys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.61)
Dividend Share
0.662
Earnings Share
0.38
Revenue Per Share
87.039
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.02)
The market value of Macys Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Macys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Macys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Macys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Macys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Macys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Macys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Macys is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Macys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.