Johnson Outdoors Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 63.97

JOUT Stock  USD 43.89  1.22  2.70%   
Johnson Outdoors' future price is the expected price of Johnson Outdoors instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Johnson Outdoors performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Johnson Outdoors Backtesting, Johnson Outdoors Valuation, Johnson Outdoors Correlation, Johnson Outdoors Hype Analysis, Johnson Outdoors Volatility, Johnson Outdoors History as well as Johnson Outdoors Performance.
For more information on how to buy Johnson Stock please use our How to Invest in Johnson Outdoors guide.
  
At this time, Johnson Outdoors' Price Book Value Ratio is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Price To Book Ratio is likely to gain to 1.55 in 2024, despite the fact that Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to (0.24). Please specify Johnson Outdoors' target price for which you would like Johnson Outdoors odds to be computed.

Johnson Outdoors Target Price Odds to finish below 63.97

The tendency of Johnson Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 63.97  after 90 days
 43.89 90 days 63.97 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Johnson Outdoors to stay under $ 63.97  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Johnson Outdoors probability density function shows the probability of Johnson Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Johnson Outdoors price to stay between its current price of $ 43.89  and $ 63.97  at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.23 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Johnson Outdoors has a beta of -0.18. This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Johnson Outdoors are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Johnson Outdoors is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Johnson Outdoors has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Johnson Outdoors Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Johnson Outdoors

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Johnson Outdoors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Johnson Outdoors' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
41.7843.8445.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
39.5053.3455.40
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
42.4144.4646.52
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
79.1787.0096.57
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Johnson Outdoors. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Johnson Outdoors' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Johnson Outdoors' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Johnson Outdoors.

Johnson Outdoors Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Johnson Outdoors is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Johnson Outdoors' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Johnson Outdoors, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Johnson Outdoors within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.16
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.18
σ
Overall volatility
2.60
Ir
Information ratio -0.15

Johnson Outdoors Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Johnson Outdoors for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Johnson Outdoors can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Johnson Outdoors generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Johnson Outdoors has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Legato Capital Management LLC Has 702000 Stock Holdings in Johnson Outdoors Inc. - Defense World

Johnson Outdoors Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Johnson Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Johnson Outdoors' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Johnson Outdoors' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding10.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments138.6 M

Johnson Outdoors Technical Analysis

Johnson Outdoors' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Johnson Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Johnson Outdoors. In general, you should focus on analyzing Johnson Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Johnson Outdoors Predictive Forecast Models

Johnson Outdoors' time-series forecasting models is one of many Johnson Outdoors' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Johnson Outdoors' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Johnson Outdoors

Checking the ongoing alerts about Johnson Outdoors for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Johnson Outdoors help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Johnson Outdoors generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Johnson Outdoors has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Legato Capital Management LLC Has 702000 Stock Holdings in Johnson Outdoors Inc. - Defense World
When determining whether Johnson Outdoors is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Johnson Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Johnson Outdoors Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Johnson Outdoors Stock:
Check out Johnson Outdoors Backtesting, Johnson Outdoors Valuation, Johnson Outdoors Correlation, Johnson Outdoors Hype Analysis, Johnson Outdoors Volatility, Johnson Outdoors History as well as Johnson Outdoors Performance.
For more information on how to buy Johnson Stock please use our How to Invest in Johnson Outdoors guide.
You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Complementary Tools for Johnson Stock analysis

When running Johnson Outdoors' price analysis, check to measure Johnson Outdoors' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Johnson Outdoors is operating at the current time. Most of Johnson Outdoors' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Johnson Outdoors' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Johnson Outdoors' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Johnson Outdoors to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Johnson Outdoors' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Johnson Outdoors. If investors know Johnson will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Johnson Outdoors listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.33)
Dividend Share
1.28
Earnings Share
1.71
Revenue Per Share
61.262
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.22)
The market value of Johnson Outdoors is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Johnson that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Johnson Outdoors' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Johnson Outdoors' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Johnson Outdoors' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Johnson Outdoors' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Johnson Outdoors' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Johnson Outdoors is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Johnson Outdoors' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.