John Hancock Tax Advantaged Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 7.05

HTY Fund  USD 5.22  0.05  0.97%   
John Hancock's future price is the expected price of John Hancock instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of John Hancock Tax Advantaged performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out John Hancock Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, John Hancock Correlation, John Hancock Hype Analysis, John Hancock Volatility, John Hancock History as well as John Hancock Performance.
  
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John Hancock Target Price Odds to finish below 7.05

The tendency of John Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 7.05  after 90 days
 5.22 90 days 7.05 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of John Hancock to stay under $ 7.05  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This John Hancock Tax Advantaged probability density function shows the probability of John Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of John Hancock Tax-adv price to stay between its current price of $ 5.22  and $ 7.05  at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon John Hancock Tax Advantaged has a beta of -0.0546. This usually indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding John Hancock are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, John Hancock Tax Advantaged is likely to outperform the market. Additionally John Hancock Tax Advantaged has an alpha of 0.1249, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   John Hancock Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for John Hancock

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as John Hancock Tax-adv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of John Hancock's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.485.215.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.104.835.56
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
4.475.205.93
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.125.185.24
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as John Hancock. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against John Hancock's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, John Hancock's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in John Hancock Tax-adv.

John Hancock Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. John Hancock is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the John Hancock's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold John Hancock Tax Advantaged, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of John Hancock within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.12
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.05
σ
Overall volatility
0.11
Ir
Information ratio -0.0082

John Hancock Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of John Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential John Hancock's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. John Hancock's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

John Hancock Technical Analysis

John Hancock's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. John Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of John Hancock Tax Advantaged. In general, you should focus on analyzing John Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

John Hancock Predictive Forecast Models

John Hancock's time-series forecasting models is one of many John Hancock's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary John Hancock's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards John Hancock in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, John Hancock's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from John Hancock options trading.

Complementary Tools for John Fund analysis

When running John Hancock's price analysis, check to measure John Hancock's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy John Hancock is operating at the current time. Most of John Hancock's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of John Hancock's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move John Hancock's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of John Hancock to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between John Hancock's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if John Hancock is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, John Hancock's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.