Groupon Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.95

GRPN Stock  USD 13.34  0.52  4.06%   
Groupon's future price is the expected price of Groupon instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Groupon performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Groupon Backtesting, Groupon Valuation, Groupon Correlation, Groupon Hype Analysis, Groupon Volatility, Groupon History as well as Groupon Performance.
To learn how to invest in Groupon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Groupon guide.
  
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Groupon Target Price Odds to finish below 2.95

The tendency of Groupon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 2.95  or more in 90 days
 13.34 90 days 2.95 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Groupon to drop to $ 2.95  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Groupon probability density function shows the probability of Groupon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Groupon price to stay between $ 2.95  and its current price of $13.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.68 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.39 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Groupon will likely underperform. Additionally Groupon has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Groupon Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Groupon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Groupon. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Groupon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
7.5013.3419.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.1812.0217.86
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
7.1012.9418.78
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.8616.5221.18
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Groupon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Groupon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Groupon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Groupon.

Groupon Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Groupon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Groupon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Groupon, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Groupon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.19
β
Beta against NYSE Composite3.39
σ
Overall volatility
2.47
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

Groupon Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Groupon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Groupon can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Groupon had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Groupon has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company currently holds 278.75 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.99, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Groupon has a current ratio of 0.75, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Groupon until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Groupon's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Groupon sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Groupon to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Groupon's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 514.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (55.41 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 522.82 M.
Groupon currently holds about 308 M in cash with (78.54 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.12.
Over 81.0% of Groupon shares are owned by institutional investors

Groupon Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Groupon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Groupon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Groupon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding31.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments167.6 M

Groupon Technical Analysis

Groupon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Groupon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Groupon. In general, you should focus on analyzing Groupon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Groupon Predictive Forecast Models

Groupon's time-series forecasting models is one of many Groupon's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Groupon's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Groupon

Checking the ongoing alerts about Groupon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Groupon help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Groupon had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Groupon has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company currently holds 278.75 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.99, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Groupon has a current ratio of 0.75, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Groupon until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Groupon's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Groupon sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Groupon to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Groupon's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 514.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (55.41 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 522.82 M.
Groupon currently holds about 308 M in cash with (78.54 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.12.
Over 81.0% of Groupon shares are owned by institutional investors
When determining whether Groupon offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Groupon's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Groupon Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Groupon Stock:
Check out Groupon Backtesting, Groupon Valuation, Groupon Correlation, Groupon Hype Analysis, Groupon Volatility, Groupon History as well as Groupon Performance.
To learn how to invest in Groupon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Groupon guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Groupon Stock analysis

When running Groupon's price analysis, check to measure Groupon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Groupon is operating at the current time. Most of Groupon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Groupon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Groupon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Groupon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Groupon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Groupon. If investors know Groupon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Groupon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Groupon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Groupon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Groupon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Groupon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Groupon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Groupon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Groupon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Groupon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Groupon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.