Five Star Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 17.24

FSBC Stock  USD 23.80  0.99  4.34%   
Five Star's future price is the expected price of Five Star instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Five Star Bancorp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Five Star Backtesting, Five Star Valuation, Five Star Correlation, Five Star Hype Analysis, Five Star Volatility, Five Star History as well as Five Star Performance.
  
At present, Five Star's Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is expected to grow to 10.31, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is forecasted to decline to 8.94. Please specify Five Star's target price for which you would like Five Star odds to be computed.

Five Star Target Price Odds to finish over 17.24

The tendency of Five Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 17.24  in 90 days
 23.80 90 days 17.24 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Five Star to stay above $ 17.24  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Five Star Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Five Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Five Star Bancorp price to stay between $ 17.24  and its current price of $23.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 38.45 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Five Star Bancorp has a beta of -0.3. This usually indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Five Star are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Five Star Bancorp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Five Star Bancorp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Five Star Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Five Star

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Five Star Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Five Star's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.7523.9326.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.0923.2725.45
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
21.1723.3425.52
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
23.9626.3329.23
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Five Star. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Five Star's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Five Star's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Five Star Bancorp.

Five Star Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Five Star is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Five Star's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Five Star Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Five Star within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.08
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.3
σ
Overall volatility
1.16
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

Five Star Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Five Star for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Five Star Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Five Star Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Five Star Bancorp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 34.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
On 12th of February 2024 Five Star paid $ 0.2 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Kashiwagi Warren Paul of 1262 shares of Five Star subject to Rule 16b-3

Five Star Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Five Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Five Star's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Five Star's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding17.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments113.5 M

Five Star Technical Analysis

Five Star's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Five Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Five Star Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Five Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Five Star Predictive Forecast Models

Five Star's time-series forecasting models is one of many Five Star's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Five Star's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Five Star Bancorp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Five Star for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Five Star Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Five Star Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Five Star Bancorp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 34.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
On 12th of February 2024 Five Star paid $ 0.2 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Kashiwagi Warren Paul of 1262 shares of Five Star subject to Rule 16b-3
When determining whether Five Star Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Five Star's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Five Star Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Five Star Bancorp Stock:
Check out Five Star Backtesting, Five Star Valuation, Five Star Correlation, Five Star Hype Analysis, Five Star Volatility, Five Star History as well as Five Star Performance.
Note that the Five Star Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Five Star's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

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When running Five Star's price analysis, check to measure Five Star's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Five Star is operating at the current time. Most of Five Star's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Five Star's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Five Star's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Five Star to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Five Star's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Five Star. If investors know Five will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Five Star listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.18)
Earnings Share
2.78
Revenue Per Share
6.664
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
Return On Assets
0.014
The market value of Five Star Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Five that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Five Star's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Five Star's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Five Star's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Five Star's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Five Star's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Five Star is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Five Star's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.