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Phoenix Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 1.97

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FENG -- USA Stock  

USD 1.82  0.03  1.62%

Phoenix New probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Phoenix New Media Limited performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Phoenix New time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Phoenix New odds to be computed. Please check Phoenix New Backtesting, Phoenix New Valuation, Phoenix New Correlation, Phoenix New Hype Analysis, Phoenix New Volatility, Phoenix New History as well as Phoenix New Performance.
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Phoenix New Target Price Odds to finish below 1.97

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 1.97  after 30 days
 1.82 30 days 1.97 
about 28.04
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Phoenix New to stay under $ 1.97  after 30 days from now is about 28.04 (This Phoenix New Media Limited probability density function shows the probability of Phoenix New Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Phoenix New Media price to stay between its current price of $ 1.82  and $ 1.97  at the end of the 30-day period is about 8.15 .
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Phoenix New has beta of 0.5032 suggesting as returns on market go up, Phoenix New average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Phoenix New Media Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Phoenix New Media is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Phoenix New Price Density 
    
  Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.78
β
Beta against DOW=0.50
σ
Overall volatility
=0.57
Ir
Information ratio =0.15

Phoenix New Alerts and Suggestions

Phoenix New Media generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Phoenix New Media has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Phoenix New Media may become a speculative penny stock
The company reported previous year revenue of 218.48 M. Net Loss for the year was (1.99 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 780.83 M.
About 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: 2021 Civic Type R Limited Edition Ultimate Track-Focused Type R Coming to America - Yahoo Finance

Phoenix NewPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out0.06%
Float Shares31.01M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day59.57k
Shares Short Prior Month62.64k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month95.36k
Date Short InterestJanuary 31, 2020