Phoenix New Media Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.0197

FENG Stock  USD 1.62  0.03  1.82%   
Phoenix New's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Phoenix New Media. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Phoenix New based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Phoenix New Media over a specific time period. For example, 2025-01-17 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on Phoenix New's common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2025-01-17. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-19 at 10:34:34 for $0.1 and, as of today, has 295 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.25, and an ask price of $0.35. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 84.9. View All Phoenix options

Closest to current price Phoenix long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Phoenix New's future price is the expected price of Phoenix New instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Phoenix New Media performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Phoenix New Backtesting, Phoenix New Valuation, Phoenix New Correlation, Phoenix New Hype Analysis, Phoenix New Volatility, Phoenix New History as well as Phoenix New Performance.
  
The Phoenix New's current Price Earnings Ratio is estimated to increase to -1.95. The current Price To Sales Ratio is estimated to decrease to 0.31. Please specify Phoenix New's target price for which you would like Phoenix New odds to be computed.

Phoenix New Target Price Odds to finish below 0.0197

The tendency of Phoenix Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 0.02  or more in 90 days
 1.62 90 days 0.02 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Phoenix New to drop to $ 0.02  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Phoenix New Media probability density function shows the probability of Phoenix Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Phoenix New Media price to stay between $ 0.02  and its current price of $1.62 at the end of the 90-day period is about 72.91 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Phoenix New Media has a beta of -0.32. This usually indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Phoenix New are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Phoenix New Media is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Phoenix New Media has an alpha of 0.4735, implying that it can generate a 0.47 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Phoenix New Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Phoenix New

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Phoenix New Media. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Phoenix New's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.081.559.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.071.348.97
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.031.429.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Phoenix New. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Phoenix New's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Phoenix New's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Phoenix New Media.

Phoenix New Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Phoenix New is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Phoenix New's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Phoenix New Media, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Phoenix New within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.47
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.32
σ
Overall volatility
0.18
Ir
Information ratio 0.04

Phoenix New Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Phoenix New for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Phoenix New Media can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Phoenix New Media is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Phoenix New Media may become a speculative penny stock
Phoenix New Media appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 704.1 M. Net Loss for the year was (69.06 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 237.2 M.
Phoenix New Media currently holds about 1.32 B in cash with (312.41 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 108.47, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Latest headline from news.google.com: What Type Of Shareholder Owns Phoenix New Media Limiteds - Yahoo Movies UK

Phoenix New Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Phoenix Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Phoenix New's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Phoenix New's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding12.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.1 B
Shares Float257.2 M

Phoenix New Technical Analysis

Phoenix New's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Phoenix Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Phoenix New Media. In general, you should focus on analyzing Phoenix Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Phoenix New Predictive Forecast Models

Phoenix New's time-series forecasting models is one of many Phoenix New's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Phoenix New's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Phoenix New Media

Checking the ongoing alerts about Phoenix New for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Phoenix New Media help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Phoenix New Media is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Phoenix New Media may become a speculative penny stock
Phoenix New Media appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 704.1 M. Net Loss for the year was (69.06 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 237.2 M.
Phoenix New Media currently holds about 1.32 B in cash with (312.41 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 108.47, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Latest headline from news.google.com: What Type Of Shareholder Owns Phoenix New Media Limiteds - Yahoo Movies UK
When determining whether Phoenix New Media is a strong investment it is important to analyze Phoenix New's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Phoenix New's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Phoenix Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Phoenix Stock analysis

When running Phoenix New's price analysis, check to measure Phoenix New's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Phoenix New is operating at the current time. Most of Phoenix New's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Phoenix New's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Phoenix New's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Phoenix New to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Economic Indicators
Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing
Share Portfolio
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Portfolio Suggestion
Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
Is Phoenix New's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Phoenix New. If investors know Phoenix will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Phoenix New listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.86)
Earnings Share
(0.81)
Revenue Per Share
57.05
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.05)
Return On Assets
(0.04)
The market value of Phoenix New Media is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Phoenix that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Phoenix New's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Phoenix New's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Phoenix New's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Phoenix New's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Phoenix New's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Phoenix New is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Phoenix New's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.