Facebook Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 195.23

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FB -- USA Stock  

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Facebook probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Facebook performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Facebook time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Facebook odds to be computed. Plese check Facebook Backtesting, Facebook Valuation, Facebook Correlation, Facebook Hype Analysis, Facebook Volatility, Facebook History as well as Facebook Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Facebook Target Price Odds to finish below 195.23

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 195.23  or more in 30 days
 221.77 30 days 195.23 
about 34.99
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Facebook to drop to $ 195.23  or more in 30 days from now is about 34.99 (This Facebook probability density function shows the probability of Facebook Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Facebook price to stay between $ 195.23  and its current price of $221.77 at the end of the 30-day period is about 63.89 .
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.03 suggesting Facebook market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Facebook is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1606 implying that it can potentially generate 0.1606% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Facebook Price Density 
    
  Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.16
β
Beta against DOW=1.03
σ
Overall volatility
=9.65
Ir
Information ratio =0.13

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Over 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Sale by Sheryl Sandberg of 18667 shares of Facebook

FacebookPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out0.94%
Short Percent Of Float1.12%
Float Shares2.38B
Shares Short Prior Month27.93M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day14.11M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month13.64M
Date Short InterestDecember 31, 2019