Encore Capital Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 38.5
| ECPG Stock | USD 42.48 0.39 0.93% |
Closest to current price Encore long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Encore |
Encore Capital Target Price Odds to finish over 38.5
The tendency of Encore Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 38.50 in 90 days |
| 42.48 | 90 days | 38.50 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Encore Capital to stay above $ 38.50 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Encore Capital Group probability density function shows the probability of Encore Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Encore Capital Group price to stay between $ 38.50 and its current price of $42.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.43 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Encore Capital Group has a beta of -0.46 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Encore Capital are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Encore Capital Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Encore Capital Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Encore Capital Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Encore Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Encore Capital Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Encore Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Encore Capital Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Encore Capital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Encore Capital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Encore Capital Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Encore Capital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.46 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Encore Capital Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Encore Capital for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Encore Capital Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Encore Capital Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Encore Capital Group has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.22 B. Net Loss for the year was (206.49 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.4 B. | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Encore Capital Group Expands Junior Achievement Partnership in the United States to Empower Youth Through Financial Education |
Encore Capital Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Encore Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Encore Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Encore Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 158.4 M |
Encore Capital Technical Analysis
Encore Capital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Encore Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Encore Capital Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Encore Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Encore Capital Predictive Forecast Models
Encore Capital's time-series forecasting models is one of many Encore Capital's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Encore Capital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Encore Capital Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Encore Capital for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Encore Capital Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Encore Capital Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Encore Capital Group has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.22 B. Net Loss for the year was (206.49 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.4 B. | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Encore Capital Group Expands Junior Achievement Partnership in the United States to Empower Youth Through Financial Education |
Check out Encore Capital Backtesting, Encore Capital Valuation, Encore Capital Correlation, Encore Capital Hype Analysis, Encore Capital Volatility, Encore Capital History as well as Encore Capital Performance. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
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When running Encore Capital's price analysis, check to measure Encore Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Encore Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Encore Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Encore Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Encore Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Encore Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Encore Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Encore Capital. If investors know Encore will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Encore Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.35) | Earnings Share (8.72) | Revenue Per Share 51.655 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.185 | Return On Assets 0.0374 |
The market value of Encore Capital Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Encore that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Encore Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Encore Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Encore Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Encore Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Encore Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Encore Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Encore Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.