ASOS PLC (Germany) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 75.44

DYQ Stock  EUR 4.36  0.07  1.58%   
ASOS PLC's future price is the expected price of ASOS PLC instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of ASOS PLC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out ASOS PLC Backtesting, ASOS PLC Valuation, ASOS PLC Correlation, ASOS PLC Hype Analysis, ASOS PLC Volatility, ASOS PLC History as well as ASOS PLC Performance.
  
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ASOS PLC Target Price Odds to finish below 75.44

The tendency of ASOS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under € 75.44  after 90 days
 4.36 90 days 75.44 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ASOS PLC to stay under € 75.44  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This ASOS PLC probability density function shows the probability of ASOS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ASOS PLC price to stay between its current price of € 4.36  and € 75.44  at the end of the 90-day period is about 50.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ASOS PLC has a beta of 0.36 suggesting as returns on the market go up, ASOS PLC average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ASOS PLC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ASOS PLC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   ASOS PLC Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for ASOS PLC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASOS PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASOS PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.854.437.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.784.366.94
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
2.084.667.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
4.434.434.43
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ASOS PLC. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ASOS PLC's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ASOS PLC's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ASOS PLC.

ASOS PLC Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ASOS PLC is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ASOS PLC's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ASOS PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ASOS PLC within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.17
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.36
σ
Overall volatility
0.23
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

ASOS PLC Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ASOS PLC for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ASOS PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
ASOS PLC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

ASOS PLC Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ASOS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ASOS PLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ASOS PLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding99.9 M
Short Long Term Debt1.4 M

ASOS PLC Technical Analysis

ASOS PLC's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ASOS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ASOS PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing ASOS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

ASOS PLC Predictive Forecast Models

ASOS PLC's time-series forecasting models is one of many ASOS PLC's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ASOS PLC's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about ASOS PLC

Checking the ongoing alerts about ASOS PLC for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ASOS PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
ASOS PLC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Check out ASOS PLC Backtesting, ASOS PLC Valuation, ASOS PLC Correlation, ASOS PLC Hype Analysis, ASOS PLC Volatility, ASOS PLC History as well as ASOS PLC Performance.
You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for ASOS Stock analysis

When running ASOS PLC's price analysis, check to measure ASOS PLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ASOS PLC is operating at the current time. Most of ASOS PLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ASOS PLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ASOS PLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ASOS PLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between ASOS PLC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ASOS PLC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ASOS PLC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.