Douyu International Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 8.16

DOYU Stock  USD 6.59  0.41  5.86%   
DouYu International's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on DouYu International Holdings. Implied volatility approximates the future value of DouYu International based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in DouYu International Holdings over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $0.5 is a CALL option contract on DouYu International's common stock with a strick price of 0.5 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:10:53 for $0.2 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $0.35. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 423.48. View All DouYu options

Closest to current price DouYu long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

DouYu International's future price is the expected price of DouYu International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of DouYu International Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out DouYu International Backtesting, DouYu International Valuation, DouYu International Correlation, DouYu International Hype Analysis, DouYu International Volatility, DouYu International History as well as DouYu International Performance.
  
At this time, DouYu International's Price Book Value Ratio is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Price To Book Ratio is likely to gain to 0.44 in 2024, whereas Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to drop 0.23 in 2024. Please specify DouYu International's target price for which you would like DouYu International odds to be computed.

DouYu International Target Price Odds to finish below 8.16

The tendency of DouYu Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 8.16  after 90 days
 6.59 90 days 8.16 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of DouYu International to stay under $ 8.16  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This DouYu International Holdings probability density function shows the probability of DouYu Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of DouYu International price to stay between its current price of $ 6.59  and $ 8.16  at the end of the 90-day period is close to zero percent.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.99 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, DouYu International will likely underperform. Additionally DouYu International Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   DouYu International Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for DouYu International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DouYu International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of DouYu International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.030.684.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.040.874.95
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.010.704.78
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
1.301.431.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as DouYu International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against DouYu International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, DouYu International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in DouYu International.

DouYu International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. DouYu International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the DouYu International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold DouYu International Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of DouYu International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.23
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.99
σ
Overall volatility
0.07
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

DouYu International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of DouYu International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for DouYu International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
DouYu International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
DouYu International has high historical volatility and very poor performance
DouYu International Holdings currently holds about 6.58 B in cash with (67.83 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 20.67, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
DouYu International has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: DouYu International Holdings Limited Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

DouYu International Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of DouYu Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential DouYu International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. DouYu International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding319.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments6.6 B

DouYu International Technical Analysis

DouYu International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. DouYu Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of DouYu International Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing DouYu Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

DouYu International Predictive Forecast Models

DouYu International's time-series forecasting models is one of many DouYu International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary DouYu International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about DouYu International

Checking the ongoing alerts about DouYu International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for DouYu International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
DouYu International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
DouYu International has high historical volatility and very poor performance
DouYu International Holdings currently holds about 6.58 B in cash with (67.83 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 20.67, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
DouYu International has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: DouYu International Holdings Limited Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
When determining whether DouYu International is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if DouYu Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Douyu International Holdings Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Douyu International Holdings Stock:

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When running DouYu International's price analysis, check to measure DouYu International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy DouYu International is operating at the current time. Most of DouYu International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of DouYu International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move DouYu International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of DouYu International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is DouYu International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of DouYu International. If investors know DouYu will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about DouYu International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
11.476
Earnings Share
0.06
Revenue Per Share
17.295
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.23)
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of DouYu International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of DouYu that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of DouYu International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is DouYu International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because DouYu International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect DouYu International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between DouYu International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if DouYu International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, DouYu International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.