Dollar General Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 114.19

DG Stock  USD 154.21  3.55  2.36%   
Dollar General's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Dollar General. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Dollar General based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Dollar General over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $155.0 is a CALL option contract on Dollar General's common stock with a strick price of 155.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:59:16 for $0.58 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.56, and an ask price of $0.7. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 28.57. View All Dollar options

Closest to current price Dollar long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Dollar General's future price is the expected price of Dollar General instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Dollar General performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Dollar General Backtesting, Dollar General Valuation, Dollar General Correlation, Dollar General Hype Analysis, Dollar General Volatility, Dollar General History as well as Dollar General Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Dollar Stock please use our How to Invest in Dollar General guide.
  
The Dollar General's current Price Earnings Ratio is estimated to increase to 36.39. The Dollar General's current Price To Sales Ratio is estimated to increase to 1.42. Please specify Dollar General's target price for which you would like Dollar General odds to be computed.

Dollar General Target Price Odds to finish over 114.19

The tendency of Dollar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 114.19  in 90 days
 154.21 90 days 114.19 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dollar General to stay above $ 114.19  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Dollar General probability density function shows the probability of Dollar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Dollar General price to stay between $ 114.19  and its current price of $154.21 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.99 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.05 suggesting Dollar General market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Dollar General is expected to follow. Additionally Dollar General has an alpha of 0.1438, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Dollar General Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Dollar General

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dollar General. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dollar General's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
152.64154.70156.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
137.47139.53169.63
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
145.38147.43149.49
Details
31 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
123.44135.65150.57
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dollar General. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dollar General's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dollar General's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Dollar General.

Dollar General Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dollar General is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dollar General's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dollar General, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dollar General within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.14
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.05
σ
Overall volatility
9.27
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

Dollar General Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dollar General for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dollar General can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
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Dollar General Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Dollar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Dollar General's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dollar General's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding219.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments537.3 M

Dollar General Technical Analysis

Dollar General's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dollar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dollar General. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dollar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Dollar General Predictive Forecast Models

Dollar General's time-series forecasting models is one of many Dollar General's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dollar General's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Dollar General

Checking the ongoing alerts about Dollar General for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dollar General help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from prnewswire.com: Sigma Announces 50mm F1.2 DG DN Art Lens YouTube Video First Look and More Info at BH
When determining whether Dollar General is a strong investment it is important to analyze Dollar General's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Dollar General's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Dollar Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Dollar General Backtesting, Dollar General Valuation, Dollar General Correlation, Dollar General Hype Analysis, Dollar General Volatility, Dollar General History as well as Dollar General Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Dollar Stock please use our How to Invest in Dollar General guide.
Note that the Dollar General information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Dollar General's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for Dollar Stock analysis

When running Dollar General's price analysis, check to measure Dollar General's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dollar General is operating at the current time. Most of Dollar General's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dollar General's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dollar General's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dollar General to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Dollar General's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dollar General. If investors know Dollar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dollar General listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.39)
Dividend Share
2.36
Earnings Share
7.55
Revenue Per Share
176.34
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
The market value of Dollar General is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dollar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dollar General's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dollar General's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dollar General's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dollar General's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dollar General's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dollar General is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dollar General's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.